In his eye-opening paper, Dr William T Wilson says that India can achieve big growth through the next few years and within a decade can match China's stupendous progress.

1. India's dependency ratio (ratio of dependent population to working age population) will decline from 60% currently to 48% by 2025. China's conversely, rises from 41% currently to 65% by 2050.

2. Consequently India's savings rate will rise from 24% of GDP currently to 37% by 2025. Conversely, China's would remain steady at around 40% of GDP until 2020, but then fall steeply to 16% by 2050.

High Capital Productivity

1. India's average annual GDP growth rate of 6% has been achieved with an investment of 22-23% of GDP.

2. China has invested twice as much as India (as a proportion of GDP), but its growth rate has been only about 50% higher.

3. China's 9.1% growth in '03 required investment of 42% of GDP. 9.5% growth in '04 needed investment of 50% of GDP.

4. To match China's recent GDP growth, India would need to increase its investment to 35% of GDP.

5. India can achieve this, within a maximum of 10 years.

An electrical storm erupts over the skyline of Mumbai, India's commercial and entertainment capital.

Photograph: Rob Elliott/AFP/Getty Images

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