The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The US Fed rate cut of 50 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on foreign inflows into India, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth said on Thursday. He said the US Federal Reserve has done what it assesses is good for the largest economy in the world, but the RBI will take a decision on interest rate cut keeping the Indian economy in mind. "It is a positive for the global economy, including the Indian economy. "It is a 50 basis points cut from a high level.
India's manufacturing sector growth eased slightly in July, on softer increases in new orders and output, while cost pressures and demand strength led to the steepest increase in selling prices since October 2013, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moderated slightly from 58.3 in June to 58.1 in July.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
Among the Sensex stocks, Larsen & Toubro rose the most by 3.96 per cent after the company announced a major project win in the Middle East. HDFC, HDFC Bank, Sun Pharma, ITC, HUL, Titan, TCS, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Infosys and Tata Steel were among the major gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp upturn in August on the back of stronger gains in new business, ongoing improvements in demand conditions and job creation, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from July's four-month low of 55.5 to 57.2 in August, amid a quicker upturn in business activity and the sharpest rise in employment for over 14 years. For the thirteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Instead of only focusing on the tenure for which the best interest rate is available, investors should also focus on their own investment horizon.
BSE-Capital goods, banks, FMCG drag index down.
The immediate priority for the new governor will be to draft the mid-quarter review
Is unhappy about banks' reluctance to pass on lower interest rates.
India's ongoing inflation-related worries must not be seen in isolation. Instead, it is a challenge being faced by several emerging economies, the finance ministry's chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu said on Tuesday, while also calling for concerted international action to deal with the issue.
No, because year-on-year data mask a sharp upward correction in industrial growth but a rate rise could see a surge of fund flows into India and prove counter-productive
Recent slide in inflation no consolation amid exceptional shrinkage in industrial growth.
Nestle India was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HUL and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty slipped 20.10 points to 15,670.25.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The statement indicated that RBI might further increase policy rates to tame inflation, which was still at an uncomfortably high level.
Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy announcement, a leading economic thinktank said on Monday that lending rates might dip marginally in the coming months due to recent decline in inflation.
Welcoming the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, the industry chambers on Tuesday said the central bank's 6.5-7 per cent growth projection for this year was in line with their expectations.
'We have delivered a bitter medicine. It will take time to work.'
Other gainers include ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Bank, TCS, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Maruti, HDFC and HUL, surging up to 3.03 per cent.
This is the 22nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
In the Sensex pack, Hero MotoCorp, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Auto, Maruti and M&M were the top gainers, spurting up to 2.66 per cent.
Auto stocks will be in focus
The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell to 50.2 in May, from 51.0 in April, pointing to the slowest growth rate in the current 12-month stretch of expansion.
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