Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) such as Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Muthoot Finance, and IIFL Finance have regained their growth momentum after losing market share to banks in the post-Covid period. The growth surge is being led by diversified lenders and gold-loan companies while development-finance institutions such as Power Finance Corporation (PFC), REC, and Housing & Urban Development Corporation (Hudco) continue to grow at a slower pace.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to withdraw the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) is expected to benefit banks during the festival season. They are likely to increase deposit rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) in select maturity buckets. The rise in demand for funds to cover tax payments and meet quarter-end business targets could influence rate decisions by banks, according to bankers and money market executives.
Bank credit is likely to grow at a four-year high of 11-12 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of better economic growth and budgetary support from the government, according to a report. In the fiscal ended March 2022, bank advances have likely grown at 9-10 per cent. "Healthy economic growth and budgetary support from the government should lift bank credit growth by 200-300 basis points to 11-12 per cent this fiscal," Crisil Ratings said in the report. The higher credit growth expectation is also supported by the improved resilience of the banking system, it added.
MF assets remained unaffected by the January market crash, said research firm Crisil. Some fund houses even registered an increse in AUMs.
The major beneficiaries of loan recasting will be sub-Rs 500 crore corporate exposures and retail exposures, which were earlier expected to see the highest increase in NPAs in percentage terms.
Banks are set to sell dud-loans worth Rs 90,000 crore of 22 firms in the first tranche to the National Asset Reconstruction Company (NARCL). It's reason for cheer given that such sales to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) have been poor in recent times. In fiscal 2020, their assets under management (AUM) contracted by 4 per cent; and in fiscal 2021, it fell by another 100 basis points to Rs 1.07 trillion. So, why are we where we are?
About 50 per cent of the accounts that availed of the EMI moratorium amid the pandemic, which made things worse in an already slowing economy, are expected to be restructured, and of these accounts that would undergo restructuring, one-third, or Rs 6-9 trillion, could turn into NPAs.
Lenders can now initiate recovery proceedings since the SC has lifted the standstill on asset classification, which protected stressed accounts from slipping into NPAs.
The general nervousness because of the IL&FS default will prevail in the system for now.
The mergers will not involve any cash but only share swaps
Experts said the new framework has ensured that the focus has moved to creditor protection from debtor protection.
For banks, the package will limit the burden of provisioning for stressed loans. Besides, the proposed restructuring package for MSMEs with a credit of up to Rs 25 crore is expected to provide a breather to units from this sector.
Like everything else, the structure of banks may change, and banks may depend more on digital technologies and artificial intelligence for dealing with both their customers and employees.
Also build a contingency fund equal to 9 to 12 months of expenses.
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