Despite trailing the benchmark Nifty 50, small and midcap (SMID) stocks appear pricey on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. The Nifty trades at roughly 21x forward earnings, compared with around 28x for both the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
As regards mid-caps and small-caps, analysts suggest investors buy only those stocks of those companies where there is earnings visibility for at least a few quarters and where the valuations have become reasonable.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
The S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have hit record highs amid the poll outcome-triggered bull frenzy at the bourses. Most analysts feel that the indices are on course to rise further over the next few months - till the general elections - albeit amid intermittent corrections - largely triggered by global developments. Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) win in the three state elections of Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, analysts at Jefferies believe, reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of over 300 seats for the BJP.
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