Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
Foreign investors have remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget amid expectations of limited policy changes.
After a year of modest returns, equity investors may anticipate gains of 10-15 per cent in Samvat 2082, which began on October 21. Although valuations have moderated from their peaks a year earlier, they remain above long-term averages, potentially limiting sharp upsides.
'When AI comes in, coders in Bangalore or Hyderabad will lose their jobs.'
'More and more people from the middle class will become self-employed gig workers mostly working from home, rather than as office workers with salary, promotion, bonuses, etc.'
Foreign portfolio investors sold stocks worth Rs 1.42 trillion in 2025, with their sales hitting Rs 12,257 crore in the first four trading days of September.
Many affluent young people are first-generation wealthy. They have limited financial literacy, lack quality financial guidance or role models, and often fall prey to mis-selling. This makes them hesitant to invest in high-return assets like equities.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
'Peninsular Indians could ask 'Why should we contribute half of India's tax revenues if we account for only a quarter of the seats in the Lok Sabha?'.' 'The rest of the country seems likely to counter that 'democracy means one vote per person irrespective of where that person resides in India'.' 'With no easy answers to this thorny debate, the south's economic ascendancy could end up creating a Hobson's choice.' A revealing excerpt from Nandita Rajhansa and Saurabh Mukherjea's book, Behold the Leviathan: The Unusual Rise of Modern India.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
'...you evaluate three key factors before committing your money.'
The top 100 companies have accounted for 63% of the gains (Rs 51 trillion out of Rs 81 trillion), while firms beyond the top 100 have contributed 37 per cent (Rs 30 trillion).
A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
The country's dash to a $3-trillion market cap is more a case of teamwork, than a few members doing most of the heavy lifting. Sample this: The share of top 100 companies to India's total market cap (BSE-listed companies' m-cap) is 67.3 per cent currently, less than what it has been when the nation hit previous milestones, such as $1 trillion, $1.5 trillion in 2007 or $2.5 trillion more recently in December 2020. In 2007, when India's m-cap topped the $1-trillion mark for the first time, the top 100 companies accounted for three-fourths of the total m-cap; at $1.5 trillion, the share was almost 80 per cent.
'Thankfully, most investors in India have now seen through this false narrative and are once again deploying their hard-earned money.
The market breadth has turned sharply positive since May amid hopes that a decline in Covid-19 infections will lead to a revival in the economy. At 3.8, the advance-decline ratio (ADR) for May was the best since June 2020. So far this month, the ratio has remained above three - in simpler words, for every declining stock, there were nearly four advancing stocks in May and three this month. ADR is a popular market breadth indicator, with a ratio of more than two signalling an extremely bullish undercurrent.
The V-shaped rebound has been aided by a gush of liquidity flooding the global financial system, thanks to balance sheet expansion.
'The consolidation of the world's fifth-largest economy in the hands of 15-20 corporate giants is a once-in-generation event, which we are focusing on.'
Given the developments, analysts expect fiscal and monetary support from the government and RBI to revive sentiment. However, recovery, they say, from these levels will be slow and painful.
In the past four months, $7.5 billion has flowed back into domestic stocks, helping the benchmark indices bounce back more than 40 per cent from their 2020 lows.
Experts say foreign investor sentiment was bolstered by the US Federal Reserve's decision to go slow with interest rate hikes and hopes of political stability.
Based on a feedback, the exchange could cap a sector's weight at 25 per cent, or align with the broader market.
'The news about the new virus strain in the UK provided them with an opportunity to take money off the table.'
'It is easy to dramatise the events of today, but it is far more important to focus on the fact that we have a radically overvalued financial sector. It is a house of cards.'
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