The Jat vote is crucial in winning at least 40 assembly seats in Western UP, which has been in the grip of a widespread farmer movement, reports Nitin Kumar.
Jaise border pe dat diya vaise yaha bhi dat do (just as you defeated the BJP along Delhi borders, defeat it in Uttar Pradesh, too)," said Atul Pradhan, a two-time Samajwadi Party MLA candidate from Western Uttar Pradesh's Sardhana constituency, as he addresses farmers in Jat-dominated Atmadnagar Alipur village, about 103 km from Delhi.
Pradhan's job is to mobilise farmer support for his party ahead of next year's UP assembly polls. For Pradhan, a day's work means at least 15 meetings with farmers.
He is not alone in the party doing this. His party has fielded droves of local leaders in every assembly constituency to assure farmers that it will remain involved in their fight against the agriculture laws.
SP national president and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has been organising cycle yatras and meetings to highlight farmer issues in the state since December 2020. The state party president, Naresh Uttam Patel, too, had carried out the Kisan Naujawan Patel Yatra.
"At least 90 per cent of the Jats will vote for the SP and its alliance partners in the upcoming assembly elections," said Sanjay Lathar, SP member of legislative council and spokesperson.
The Jat vote is crucial in winning at least 40 assembly seats in Western UP, which has been in the grip of a widespread farmer movement.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had cornered 91 per cent of the Jat vote in western UP, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.
Not only the SP, its partner Rashtriya Lok Dal, too, has doubled down on its campaign to earn farmer votes, especially of the Jats, the party's biggest vote bank until the BJP wrested it away.
"By voting for the RLD, we will atone for our sins of voting for the BJP in the previous election," said Sachin Singh, a 30-year-old farmer while attending RLD president Jayant Chaudhary's rasam pagdi programme in Chaprouli, Baghpat district. The event was organised by leaders of over 36 khaps in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan to present traditional headgear to Jayant Chaudhary to anoint him heir to Chaudhary Charan Singh's legacy.
Chaudhary, on his strategy to mobilise voters, said: "People are turning up in large numbers at our panchayats; in the coming months, our 'Team RLD' app will be used to reach every person at booth-level."
Chaudhary is set to embark on an Aashirwad Path (seeking farmers' blessings), a yatra during which he will hold programmes targeting farmers and other voters. It will start on October 7 in Noorpur (Hapur district), the birthplace of Charan Singh, and end on October 28 in Baraut (Baghpat district).Other
SP partners -- the Janvadi Party-Socialist and Mahan Dal -- are also campaigning in farmers' support.
Besides supporting the farm agitation, these parties are raising issues related to "stagnant sugarcane" prices, ever-rising diesel rates, expensive electricity, and the menace of stray animals.
But as the elections approach, the BJP is not sitting back and twiddling its thumbs. It is trying to woo the farmers by repeatedly referring to how it increased the fair and remunerative price (FRP) of sugarcane for the next sugar season, starting October 2021, at Rs 290 per quintal, an increase of Rs 5 over the previous year.
It also speaks of its Kisan Samman Nidhi (giving every farmer Rs 6,000 a year).
However, political experts say the scheme is not going to make a big difference in elections. They feel people will change their mind only if the increase in sugarcane prices is more substantial.
In a bid to woo the angry sugarcane farmers, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath announced a Rs 25 per quintal hike in the purchase prices of sugarcane in the state. After the hike, the price of early and common sugarcane varieties will surge from Rs 325 and Rs 315 per quintal to Rs 350 and Rs 340 per quintal respectively.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi laying the foundation stone of Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh State University in Aligarh and the UP government's decision of increasing the sugarcane state advised price is the BJP's strategy to woo Jat voters.
Shashikant Pandey, professor and head, Department of Political Science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said the RSS and BJP were working to mobilise the Jats on the Hindutva theme. "Besides its Hindutva identity, the ruling party certainly has two advantages. First, it has a huge corpus to spend in elections. Second, it is in power both at state and center levels," Pandey said.
Rakesh Tikat is confident the BJP will face the wrath of farmers in the upcoming elections. "Farmers are angry with the ruling party. Not only in UP, they will face defeat across the country," said Tikait.
While agreeing that the Opposition is taking lead on launching campaigns in Western UP, Sanjeev Balyan, minister of state of animal husbandry, dairying, and fisheries, said: "We are working on the ground and will soon launch an intensive campaign. We were waiting for an increase in sugarcane prices. Now, we will also launch our campaign."
He said elections would not be fought on farmers' issues alone. The BJP will counter opposition campaigns on issues surrounding farmers' laws by better law and order, infrastructure projects, development, and rise in sugarcane prices.
However, Lathar, also spokesperson for the SP, quotes figures from the National Crime Records Bureau to counter Balyan's claim.
"According to the NCRB data, communal, caste, and agrarian riots have increased 96 per cent, 50 per cent, and 38 per cent, respectively, in 2020 from the past year. The BJP has been lying to the people of UP. They promised farmers loan waivers but later refused. The mandi structure has collapsed in UP and there is no law on minimum support price. Thousands of farmers are being denied PM-Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi benefits."
