In India elections are never fought in a straight line.
It's fought on many issues, at many levels, with multiple emotions and with a bit of good luck, too.
Sheela Bhatt reports from Rajasthan.
"How's the mahaul?" I ask Nisha, a woman voter in Pinan, a small village in the Rajgadh-Lakshmangadh taluka in the Alwar constituency in Rajasthan about the Lok Sabha election.
"BJP wale kitab badal rahe hai. (BJP will change the Constitution)," she says, adding, "We will vote for the Congress."
Nisha is dressed up to attend an event in Pinan bazaar to celebrate Babasaheb Ambedkar's "birthday party". Two years ago, the Dalits of Pinan erected a statue of Dr Ambedkar in the local bazaar. All the Dalit families residing in Pinan are present to garland the statue.
On locally made sound systems, music greeting "Happy Birthday to Babasaheb" is playing loudly. A few villagers dance to the synthetic tunes. Young boys cut the cake. One child cutely pastes cake on Dr Ambedkar's lips.
In many parts of India, Dalits identify with Dr Ambedkar, more and more. They have given Dr Ambedkar almost a godly status. The Constitution of India has acquired a different meaning amongst the Dalits. "Samvidhan" is the only guarantee of their scheduled caste status and the reservation quota of 15% in government jobs.
WATCH: Residents of Pinan village garland Dr Ambedkar's statue
WATCH: The villagers at Dr Ambedkar's 'birthday party'
WATCH: Children dance to the music
I ask Nisha and her neighbour Rajkumari the name of the Congress candidate in the Alwar Lok Sabha constituency. They have no clue who he is.
I ask Alwar's senior BJP leader Banna Ram Meena, who lost the 2023 assembly election, why this "fear" of the possibility of a change in the Constitution has percolated to citizens?
"It's spread by the Congress," Meena says.
"On what basis?" I ask, "What triggered it?"
Meena smirks and asserts, "This slogan of 'ab ki baar 400 paar panicked them."
For the last couple of days, Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Bhupendra Yadav, the BJP's candidate in Alwar, have been denying this perception.
On April 16, Modi was in Bihar and West Bengal. In Balurghat, Bengal, he told an election rally, 'The Constitution is our Aastha (faith). This Constitution has turned out to be so great because Ambedkar was supported by 80% to 90% members of the Constituent Assembly who were Sanatani. Uttam samvidhan banane main unhone Ambedkar ka saath diya (,em>they supported Ambedkar in creating a fine Constitution).'
While quashing the 'misconception' about the BJP's intent, Modi said, 'In the 75th year of the Constitution we will take its message to nooks and corner of India. We will show the importance of it. These people (the Congress) who suspended the Constitution during the Emergency are manufacturing an incorrect narrative about the Constitution.'
Modi repeats this message in all his speeches. The same day, in another speech, Modi says, 'What to talk about Modi, or the BJP, even if Ambedkar himself wishes, this Constitution can't be changed! It is giving strength to our passion and our sanskars."
The BJP is paying a price for its Uttara Kannada MP Anantkumar Hegde's statement that triggered this controversy. On March 25, Hegde -- who has since not been given a ticket to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha election -- said the BJP wants to win 400 seats because it wants to change the Constitution.
The Congress added spice to this by saying that the BJP wants to change the Constitution to 'end reservations for Dalits and tribals.' The BJP leadership distanced itself from Hegde's remarks, but the damage has been done.
BJP candidates in Rajasthan and elsewhere are firefighting the notion that the party will alter the Constitutuon if it wins 400 seats this election and insist that the "Constitutional guarantee" of "reservation" is unchangeable.
In Alwar district, on the campaign trail, I ask Bhupender Yadav about the "fears" of some voters that the BJP is asking for 400 seats so that it can change the Constitution.
"Maybe some Congress voters are saying so," says Yadav. "Prime Minister Modi has given a strong response to it. Amit Shah, during his speech in Alwar, has said that these are rumours spread by the Congress."
"We have ruled for 10 years under our Constitution. We believe in the Constitution, and we have no plans to change it," Yadav, who is perceived to be close to Modi and Shah, adds.
WATCH: Bhupender Yadav, the BJP candidate, tying a turban
WATCH: Bhupender Yadav addresses an election meeting
At ground zero, a reality check of any issue provides a different perspective.
By any yardstick, the perception that the caste-based reservation system can be tampered with is the ultimate political weapon to hit your opponent.
But in India elections are never fought in a straight line. It's fought on many issues, at many levels, with multiple emotions and with a bit of good luck, too.
Take Alwar constituency.
Here, the Meos, native Muslims of the region, Meenas, the tribals of Alwar, and Dalits speak about the "BJP samvidhan badlega" and largely favour the Congress.
By a rough estimate, around 750,000 (7.5 lakh) among Alwar's 2.05 million (20.5 lakh) voters are inclined towards the Congress. But in an Indian constituency when the caste factor enters the fray, many genuine electoral issues vanish.
In Alwar the caste identity is quite sharp.
After leaving Pinan, I travel to areas where Sainis, Yadavs and other non-tribal and non-Dalit Hindus are in a majority. They don't express fears that the BJP will change the Constitution.
They are angry over the water scarcity.
In the Rajgarh-Lakshmangarh assembly constituency, drinking water comes once every four days. There is severe scarcity of water for farming.
I ask Murarilal Shastri, a retired Sanskrit teacher in Behedkho Kalan village, "What happened to Modi's Har Ghar Jal project?"
"We had a Congress government. They were not sincere in its implementation because it was Modi's project," says Shastri. "They installed pipelines to the bore well which had no water in it. The project's money got spent, but we never got water."
"In our area if you dig up to 800 feet below the ground level you won't find water. The levels have gone down dangerously low."
Indian elections are increasingly difficult to report because all castes are uniting on election eve to demand their share of power. Candidates are left with no choice but to negotiate with caste leaders. Retired bureaucrats and police officers, former MLAs and MPs in the area are engaged to negotiate with their respective castes.
Bhupender Yadav faces a challenging battle as around 400,000 Yadav voters in Alwar will be divided between him and his Congress rival, Lalit Yadav, who is the sitting MLA for the Mundawar assembly seat which is part of the Alwar Lok Sabha constituency.
At a subtle level he will have to establish that he is the powerful emerging Yadav leader of the entire belt extending into Haryana and Lalit Yadav is "junior" to him.
Of Alwar's 8 assembly seats, five have Congress MLAs.
"Meena tribals of our area converted to Islam many decades back. Now they are known as Meos," says Kanhaiyalal Saini, a vegetable vendor. "Meenas and Meos have lots of common customs and traditionally they have been voting for the Congress."
To solve the area's water problems, Saini will vote for the BJP.
"Without power in Jaipur and Delhi you can't solve the pani ki samasya (water crisis). You need a budget worth crores of rupees. Modi has the wherewithal to spend that kind of money."
"Hindus will vote for the BJP," Saini adds.
"Alwar is a spiritual bhumi," Banna Ram, who lost an election as recently as November 2023, tells me. "The real issue is lack of water supply. Hindus and Muslims live in harmony."
Bhupender Yadav gets his confidence from data from the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
BJP candidate Balaknath then secured 60.1% of Alwar's votes, polling 760,000 votes. His Congress rival Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, a scion of Alwar's erstwhile royal family, won 430,000 votes or 34% of the votes polled.
When the difference between the BJP and Congress is as high as 26%, Lalit Yadav, Bhupender Yadav's Congress adversary, needs a massive swing in his favour.
Without power in Jaipur, Congress candidates are sailing against the wind in Rajasthan.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
