'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
If 2024 was the warmest year in recorded history, 2025 might be worse.
States like Jharkhand, Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Andhra Pradesh are already recording temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius.
With heatwaves arriving earlier than expected, in late February, scientists and meteorologists warn of more frequent and severe extreme weather events in 2025.
Rising sea surface temperatures could have widespread effects on urban infrastructure, real estate, pharmaceuticals, energy, and agriculture.
February this year was the hottest in 125 years, despite La Niña's cooling influence.
In April and May, most of India -- except for the southern, extreme northern, and northeastern regions -- will likely experience above-normal maximum temperatures and increased heatwave days, according to the India Meteorological Department.
Heatwaves typically occur from March to June, but can sometimes extend into July.
When temperature deviations touch or exceed 4.5°C, coastal regions of India are classified as experiencing a heatwave.
Meteorologists attribute the early heatwave to an extremely dry winter season, among other factors.
"This year, the country experienced one of the driest winters in recent memory," said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, a Noida-based private weather forecasting agency.
"An anticyclone over Madhya Pradesh has been pushing warm easterly winds across the West Coast, delaying sea breezes while prolonging land breezes, contributing to rising temperatures."
High humidity levels near the coast, he added, have worsened discomfort.
While pre-monsoon activity may begin in April over northern India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and western Uttar Pradesh, temperatures are expected to remain above normal, he said.
"The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha, while northeast India and the southern peninsula will experience frequent showers on and off."
Vineet Kumar, a scientist at the blog, Vagaries of Weather, was of the view that it is earlier to predict record-breaking temperatures with certainty. He did, however, add that there is an ongoing warming trend.
"Over the last 100 years, data shows a significant increase in temperatures."
According to the IMD, the all-India annual average temperature is rising at 0.68°C per century, while winter and monsoon temperatures are increasing at 0.73°C and 0.45°C per century, respectively.
The warming of the sea surface in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea might also be increasing rainfall.
Last year, a study by Advancing Earth and Space Sciences revealed that summer monsoon rainfall in northwest India had increased by 40 per cent between 1979 and 2022 compared to the 1980s.
A warming carbon sink
Greenhouse gas emissions hit record highs in 2023, with carbon dioxide levels exceeding 420 ppm and methane emissions rising nearly 14 per cent over the past decade.
This is causing Arctic ice loss, ocean heat retention, and worsening wildfires. Around 90 per cent of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases is stored in oceans.
In 2024, ocean heat content reached its highest level in the 65-year observational record.
Each of the past eight years has set a new record, with the rate of ocean warming over the past two decades being more than twice that of 1960 to 2005, according to a World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report this month.
"As a result, 2025 is expected to see more frequent and severe extreme weather events," warned Saunak Saha, partner-Climate Change and Sustainability Services, EY India.
"Ocean warming is expected to persist, with sea surface temperatures exceeding 21°C, driving stronger tropical cyclones and coastal flooding.
"Precipitation patterns will be disrupted, causing droughts in some regions and deadly floods in others."
Urban stress
Saha cautioned that rising global temperatures will intensify urban heat stress and push cooling energy demands above 10 per cent of the total electricity consumption.
A recent report by Sustainable Futures Collaborative, a New Delhi-based research organisation, found that nine cities -- Bengaluru, Delhi, Faridabad, Gwalior, Kota, Ludhiana, Meerut, Mumbai, and Surat -- are the most vulnerable to future heat, affecting over 11 per cent of India's urban population.
Increasing heatwaves will impact public health, especially outdoor workers, reducing productivity, said Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar, advisor-Urban Resilience, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.
"Rising temperatures lead to increased evapotranspiration, higher water demand, and lower water availability," he added.
A report by the water resources department projected that India's water demand, including drinking water, would rise to 1,093 billion cubic meters (BCM) in 2025 and 1,447 BCM by 2050, up from 813 BCM in 2010.
Rajasekar pointed to the cascading effects of heat -- on public transport users, in water quality degradation due to increased algae growth, and a rise in waterborne diseases.
Health and economy
In 2024, India recorded 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases and over 100 deaths by mid-June, according to a UN report.
With the Met bureau's grim forecast, Dileep Mavalankar, former director of the Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, warns of increased morbidity, mortality, and economic loss.
He suggests higher budget allocations, appointing chief heat officers in major cities and rural districts, improving emergency response systems, ensuring water availability, planting trees, and modifying work patterns to mitigate heat effects.
The pharmaceutical industry, meanwhile, may experience disruptions in supply chains and manufacturing, affecting medicine demand due to shifting disease patterns.
Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods could significantly impact India's economy. According to the Asian Development Bank, climate change may lead to a 24.7 per cent GDP reduction.
"Governments may face fiscal strain as disaster recovery costs rise, requiring greater investment in climate adaptation and resilience. This could shift budget priorities, diverting resources from infrastructure and social programmes," said Sen of EY India.
The financial sector may also face disruptions.
"Rising insurance claims and underinsured losses could strain insurers and reinsurers, increasing costs for businesses and households," Sen said.
"Investors may shift capital toward climate-resilient assets, accelerating ESG-driven investment trends but also creating market volatility."
Call for action
For long-term economic stability, businesses may need to integrate climate risk assessments into their strategies; financial institutions may refine climate risk pricing; and policymakers may accelerate adaptation investments to mitigate economic shocks, Sen said.
Experts also recommend measures such as scheduling extended work hours in the evening instead of peak afternoon heat, adopting sustainability practices, and energy efficiency.
Governments, they said, must enhance climate adaptation policies, carbon taxation, and disaster preparedness.
It's time for a 360-degree approach to strengthen climate resilience and drive the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy.
The other suggestions included embedding ESG considerations into lending and investment strategies to shift capital toward green infrastructure; expanding access to green bonds, sustainability linked loans, and climate transition finance; and adopting climate tech solutions like AI-driven risk analytics, IoT-based environmental monitoring, and blockchain for carbon tracking.
Nature-based solutions such as afforestation, wetland restoration, and regenerative agriculture are also critical to mitigate climate risks while supporting biodiversity and sustainability goals, they stressed.
2024
- 2024 was the hottest year on record, with temperatures touching 1.55°C above pre-industrial level (WMO).
322
- 322 out of 366 days last year, India witnessed extreme weather events, up from 318 days in 2023. Fatalities rose to 3,472, an increase of 15% in three years (CSE)
A slow burn: February in 2025 was the hottest in 125 years
- On February 25, Goa and Maharashtra recorded India’s first heatwave of 2025 and of the winter season (IMD)
- On March 15, Odisha and Jharkhand recorded the first warm night of the year. In 2024, Gujarat & Maharashtra had recorded the year’s first warm night on March 27 (IMD)
- Long-term global warming is estimated between 1.34°C and 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, with 1850-1900 as baseline (WMO)
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
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