Why Subianto Is The R-Day Chief Guest

India is trying hard to erase Indonesia's wariness about New Delhi, building security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.
If Indonesia decides to buy the Brahmos missile, it would further strengthen relations between the world's most populous nation and the most populous Islamic country.

At home in Indonesia, he is better known as the 'cuddly grandpa' whose pet cats (confusingly named Mika, Miki, and Miko) have their own Instagram accounts.

Bobby, his latest pet, a brown-and-white stray with 500,000 Instagram followers, has moved to Jakarta's presidential palace, Istana Merdeka, prompting local media to exclaim: 'Move over Larry @10DowningStreet! Bobby is Indonesia's First Cat.'

But Prabowo Subianto (74), the president of Indonesia, former general in the Indonesian military, and the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations in 2025, is also seen as a shrewd negotiator and a successful politician.

He has managed to gloss over his controversial past, marked by allegations of ordering the 'disappearances' of hundreds of political rivals decades ago to promoting a vision of himself as a benevolent and pro-poor administrator.

From serving as defence minister in his predecessor Joko Widodo's government, he coasted to victory in February 2024 to become president, after losing two earlier elections in 2014 and 2019.

"While Widodo was more reserved and cautious, Subianto is an outgoing and colourful character who will play a more visible and international role than Widodo," says Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary and India's ambassador to Indonesia.

Saran says the signs are evident: After holding off on China's invitation to join Brics, Indonesia joined the organisation in October last year, just months after Subianto assumed the presidency, a signal of changes to come.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia's president from 2004 to 2014, predicted on X that Subianto 'will be a foreign policy president'.

In charting its international role, Indonesia has long grappled with a strategic tension, Saran says.

As the largest economy in Asean, should it restrict itself to piloting the organisation and staving off threats to it, internal and external?

Or should it adopt a more global role for itself, as a kind of international intermediary, much the space that India is seeking to occupy?

Regionally, its antecedents are well established.

Along with France, it helped negotiate the Cambodian peace process, eventually leading to the rebirth of the Kingdom of Cambodia.

Indonesia mediated the agreement that ended decades of separatist rebellion in the Philippines.

It is pushing for the implementation of the ASEAN five-point consensus aimed at resolving the Myanmar crisis.

The Constitution of Indonesia, which was the co-founder of the Non-Aligned Movement alongside Jawaharlal Nehru-led India, prohibits the country from joining any military alliance.

This year, 2025, marks the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference.

At the same time, Indonesia's ambitions for a global role have never been hidden.

At the recent international conference on Gaza in Jordan and the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, then president-elect Subianto announced the country's commitment to support, contribute to, and facilitate efforts toward a two-State solution and ending the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

On the war between Russia and Ukraine, he reiterated his call for a truce to allow for negotiations toward a peaceful solution.

At the same venue, he urged China and the United States to act as responsible global powers, arguing that major powers can coexist, cooperate, and collaborate.

Indonesia, he asserted, is committed to promoting this kind of engagement.

However, this is only part of the story.

"When it comes to the China challenge in the region, Indonesia is a critical player. But its role has been ambiguous. It is anxious about China's expansionism but has been reluctant to become a leading countervailing force," Saran says.

For example, Indonesia was a willing participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2014 as well as the Maritime Silk Route launched in 2013.

Chinese investment in Indonesia has surged as a result.

In 2010, Chinese foreign direct investment in Indonesia amounted to $740 million.

By 2020, it had risen to $8.4 billion. A China-built railroad in Indonesia has also seen Jakarta's enthusiastic participation.

Relations with India, however, have been a bit distant, Saran says.

"If Indonesia is looking for a global role, India is almost a competitor," he says, adding that successive Indian governments have patiently worked to reverse this "wariness" towards New Delhi.

Much of this is reflected in recent security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Indonesia's maritime interests, including its extensive Exclusive Economic Zone, represent a significant security challenge and India has assisted by sharing real-time information via the US Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness programme and monitoring the region through Indian satellite tracking stations.

Amid unverified information that President Subianto's trip could lead to Jakarta deciding to buy India's BrahMos cruise missile system, Saran says: "Clearly, that (BrahMos) will be Indonesia's deterrent against China. It will mean Indonesia is building up capability".

Experts say China won't like the move. As defence minister, Subianto played a key role in countering China's "possible encroachment on Indonesia's Natuna Islands".

But signing the missile purchase agreement will be a decisive, and in some ways, irrevocable step.

Private Indian business investments in Indonesia could be more, Saran observes. Around 80 Indian companies, big and small, have invested in Indonesia.

These include the Adani group, TVS Group, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Jindal Stainless, Lakshmi Mittal group, and Wipro.

In 2020, the Indian embassy in Jakarta organised the first ever India-Indonesia defence industry exhibition-cum-seminar, which included 36 prominent defence companies from India (both public and private), along with several Indonesian State-owned defence enterprises and private defence enterprises.

Indonesian troops will march in India's Republic Day parade. Discussions during his likely visit are expected to focus on business, development, and security cooperation, including Digital Public Infrastructure.

However, whether a commitment on the BrahMos missile purchase will materialise remains to be seen.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com