The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Opposition Congress are the main contenders for power in Haryana but it is the third factor that promises to play spoilsport for either of the two big players, depending on the extent of popular support regional parties and Independents can manage in the assembly elections.
A consolidation of Opposition votes in the state in the recent Lok Sabha elections pulled down the BJP's tally of 10 seats to five, delivering the remainder to the Congress, but the ruling party leaders are hopeful that third players will now draw in more votes, as is often the case in assembly polls.
Congress leaders, on their part, are confident that the mobilisation of voters away from the BJP will gain more momentum in the state elections, scheduled for October 1, in the absence of national issues and the 'Modi factor'.
Former deputy chief minister Dushyant Singh Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party, the alliance of the Indian National Lok Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party, and a number of resourceful Independents -- many of whom won in the 2019 assembly polls -- are jostling to make their presence felt in the state's traditionally crowded political landscape after being reduced to bit-part players in the Lok Sabha elections.
As the JJP and the INLD -- spearheaded by Dushyant Singh Chautala's estranged uncle Abhay Singh Chautala -- and Independents such as MLA Balraj Kundu draw their core support from Jats, the BJP believes that they will cut into non-BJP votes as the community had largely voted for the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls.
At over 26 percent of the population, Jats are the biggest caste in Haryana.
The BSP's dwindling support is mostly confined to a section of Dalits who had veered away from the BJP in large numbers in the Lok Sabha polls.
In a recent interview to PTI, Congress leader and former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda had dismissed the regional parties as "vote-cutters".
Nobody will vote for them, he had said, noting that the JJP received less than a percent vote in the Lok Sabha elections. It had bagged nearly 15 percent votes and 10 seats in the last assembly polls.
The JJP is fighting an existential battle as it is now left with only three loyal MLAs, Dushyant Singh Chautala and his mother Naina Singh Chautala being two of them.
BJP leaders involved in the assembly poll campaign have expressed confidence that a consolidation of the party's traditional non-Jat votes will occur as the poll date approaches, helping it retain power for a third term. The state assembly has 90 seats.
If the BJP also hopes to benefit from factionalism within the Congress, what is a cause of concern for the party is that its vote share in assembly polls often falls by a decent margin from the Lok Sabha elections.
After winning its maiden majority in Haryana in 2014, the BJP was reduced to 40 seats in 2019 and formed the government with support from the JJP.
The BJP has appointed Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, a seasoned poll hand, and former Tripura chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb as election in-charge and co-incharge, respectively, for the Haryana elections.
