Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
The southwest monsoon is expected to be 'normal' this year at 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Tuesday.
The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus five per cent.
The LPA for the June-September monsoon months is 868.6 millimetres, according to Skymet.
Rainfall between 96 and 104 of the LPA is considered 'normal'.
If the actual rains match the forecast, then it would mean good tidings for the country's farm sector.
It would help the government in controlling food inflation in FY26.
The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) would release its first official forecast for this monsoon season in a few days, mostly by the middle of this month.
Releasing its first full-fledged official forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said that this year the occurrence of El Nino, which usually corrupts Indian monsoon, is ruled out.
And, a 'neutral' El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is most likely to be the dominant category during summer monsoon.
"The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome," Singh said.
The initial forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better monsoon prospects.
"Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase," Singh added.
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also likely to be 'neutral' in 2025 with a propensity to turn positive before the start of monsoon.
Skymet believes that ENSO and IOD will be 'synchronous' and may steer monsoon towards safe margins in 2025, an official statement said.
Region-wise, Skymet said it expects good monsoon over western and southern India.
More importantly, rains over the core rainfed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh is expected to be adequate.
"Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats and more so over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa," Skymet said.
North-East India and hilly parts of North India may get less-than-normal rains during this season.
Probability-wise, Skymet said in 2025, there is 40 per cent chance of normal rains, while there is 30 per cent chance of the monsoon being 'above-normal.' There is a 10 per cent chance of it being 'excess'.
Skymet added that there is a 15 per cent chance of the monsoon being 'below normal' and just 5 per cent chance of it being a drought year.
Month-wise, Skymet said that monsoon in June is expected to be 96 per cent of LPA with 50 per cent of chance of it being normal.
In July, it is expected to be 102 per cent of the LPA with 60 per cent chance of it being normal.
Monsoon in August is expected to be 108 per cent of the LPA with 40 per cent chance of it being 'normal'.
In September, it is expected to be 104 per cent of the LPA with 60 per cent chance of it being 'normal'.
July and August are the two most important months in the June-September season.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
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