Since Mizoram became a separate state in 1987 after years of insurgency, it has been ruled by either the Mizo National Front or the Congress.
However, the binary equation in the northeastern state is being threatened by the emergence of a new political force, the Zoram People's Movement, which upset many calculations in a key civic body election earlier this year.
Voting for all 40 assembly seats in Mizoram will take place on November 7, the Election Commission said on Monday.
The ruling Mizo National Front led by Zoramthanga is looking for a second straight term in the 2023 assembly polls.
In all, it has ruled for three terms since Mizoram became a state after the then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi signed the Mizo peace accord, while its principal rival the Congress has had four terms in power.
Analysts believe the Zoramthanga-led party may have an edge over rivals because of its performance in distribution of financial assistance under the state' flagship programme, the socio-economic development policy, handling of refugees and displaced people from Myanmar, Bangladesh and Manipur, and the rising tide of Zo sun-nationalism as a reaction to the ethnic displacements the community has faced in recent times.
“The MNF will gain from the refugee issue, especially how it handled the displaced people from Manipur,” said Prof J Doungel, of the Mizoram University's political science department.
Even opposition parties have not found any reason to pin any “blame on Chief Minister Zoramthanga in the way he handled the situation,” he said.
In the 2018 assembly election, where MNF ousted the Congress government, the Mizo National Front bagged 37.7 per cent of the votes polled and won 26 seats.
The Congress managed just five seats, though it received nearly 30 per cent of the votes.
The Congress, under its new president Lalsawta, is fighting for reforms within the party by bringing in youngsters under its fold.
However, the grand old party has seen its shine stolen by Zoramthanga's espousal of Zo refugee cause on the one hand and by the rise of the alternative ZPM.
The ZPM emerged as a player in urban areas, winning eight seats despite garnering a far lower 22.9 per cent of the vote share.
In 2018, ZPM came up as an alternative, especially in urban areas and replaced Congress as the principal opposition.
The ZPM has preached the introduction of a new political system, a system which is completely different from the existing system in the state.
ZPM working president K Sapdanga claimed that “people, including the government employees, are anxious to see a new government and new political system”.
In the Lunglei Municipal polls held in March this year, ZPM had swept the town's council, the second largest in the state, by getting the lion's share of 49 per cent of the votes.
MNF came second with 29.4 per cent and Congress third with 20 per cent votes.
However, since then, much water has flown down the river Tlawng, and the Manipur ethnic riots that sent hordes of refugees into Mizoram have taken up news space here, as has moves by the Centre to identify Myanmar refugees and obtain their biometric information.
This time, besides its handling of the refugee crisis, the Zoramthanga government's bold stand in defying the Centre's order to deport Myanmar nationals, and refusal to collect biometric data from them is likely to be viewed positively by voters not only in rural areas where MNF is strong, but also in the urban centres where ZPM has held sway.
Zoramthanga has himself, too, expressed confidence that his party will retain power.
“We have been able to work on many development projects despite several hurdles and financial constraints caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,” he told newspersons.
