In a report for Brookings Institute on the global macroeconomic impacts of coronavirus, Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando present 7 scenarios on the impact of the virus outbreak.
While scenarios 1-3 assume that the epidemiological events are isolated to China, scenarios 4-6 present the pandemic scenarios that assumes the epidemiological shocks occur in all countries to differing degrees. The authors note that while scenarios 1-6 assume that the shocks are temporary, scenario 7 posits a case where a mild pandemic is expected to be recurring each year for the indefinite future, they add.
To explore the different scenarios they have used a ‘hybrid of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen (1999, 2013)’.
According to the authors, of the scenarios 4-7, even the lowest of the pandemic scenario predicts the global casualty figure to be 15 million.
India tops this list, with 3.7 million deaths, and China comes a close second with 2.8 million deaths.
In all the four scenarios outlined, India tops China in the number of fatalities. Scenario 6 is the worst, and predicts more than 16 million deaths in India and 12 million in China.
Impact on populations under each scenario
| Country/Region | Population (Thousands) |
Mortality in First Year (Thousands) | ||||||
| S01 | S02 | S03 | S04 | S05 | S06 | S07 | ||
| Argentina | 43,418 | - | - | - | 50 | 126 | 226 | 50 |
| Australia | 23,800 | - | - | - | 21 | 53 | 96 | 21 |
| Brazil | 205,962 | - | - | - | 257 | 641 | 1,154 | 257 |
| Canada | 35,950 | - | - | - | 30 | 74 | 133 | 30 |
| China | 1,397,029 | 279 | 3,493 | 12,573 | 2,794 | 6,985 | 12,573 | 2,794 |
| France | 64,457 | - | - | - | 60 | 149 | 268 | 60 |
| Germany | 81,708 | - | - | - | 79 | 198 | 357 | 79 |
| India | 1,309,054 | - | - | - | 3,693 | 9,232 | 16,617 | 3,693 |
| Indonesia | 258,162 | - | - | - | 647 | 1,616 | 2,909 | 647 |
| Italy | 59,504 | - | - | - | 59 | 147 | 265 | 59 |
| Japan | 127,975 | - | - | - | 127 | 317 | 570 | 127 |
| Mexico | 125,891 | - | - | - | 184 | 460 | 828 | 184 |
| Republic of Korea | 50,594 | - | - | - | 61 | 151 | 272 | 61 |
| Russia | 143,888 | - | - | - | 186 | 465 | 837 | 186 |
| Saudi Arabia | 31,557 | - | - | - | 29 | 71 | 128 | 29 |
| South Africa | 55,291 | - | - | - | 75 | 187 | 337 | 75 |
| Turkey | 78,271 | - | - | - | 116 | 290 | 522 | 116 |
| United Kingdom | 65,397 | - | - | - | 64 | 161 | 290 | 64 |
| United States of America | 319,929 | - | - | - | 236 | 589 | 1,060 | 236 |
| Other Asia | 330,935 | - | - | - | 530 | 1,324 | 2,384 | 530 |
| Other oil producing countries | 517,452 | - | - | - | 774 | 1,936 | 3,485 | 774 |
| Rest of Euro Zone | 117,427 | - | - | - | 106 | 265 | 478 | 106 |
| Rest of OECD | 33,954 | - | - | - | 27 | 67 | 121 | 27 |
| Rest of the World | 2,505,604 | - | - | - | 4,986 | 12,464 | 22,435 | 4,986 |
| Total | 7,983,209 | 279 | 3,493 | 12,573 | 15,188 | 37,971 | 68,347 | 15,188 |
In scenario 5, India sees more than 9 million deaths and China 6 million plus, while scenario 7 is a mirror image of scenario 4.
The authors also predict the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the GDP of different nations in 2020 as a percentage deviation from the baseline, and here India does not come off so badly in comparison to other countries.
In scenario 4, the lowest of the pandemic scenario, India’s GPD will be hit to the tune of 1.4%, and China’s to the tune of 1.6%. The impact on other nations is greater: USA loses 2.0%, European Union 2.1%, and Australia and Brazil to the tune of 2.1%.
GDP loss in 2020 (% deviation from baseline)
| Country/Region | S01 | S02 | S03 | S04 | S05 | S06 | S07 |
| AUS | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -2.1 | -4.6 | -7.9 | -2.0 |
| BRA | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -4.7 | -8.0 | -1.9 |
| CHI | -0.4 | -1.9 | -6.0 | -1.6 | -3.6 | -6.2 | -2.2 |
| IND | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -3.1 | -5.3 | -1.3 |
| EUZ | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -4.8 | -8.4 | -1.9 |
| FRA | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -4.6 | -8.0 | -1.5 |
| DEU | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -2.2 | -5.0 | -8.7 | -1.7 |
| ZAF | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -4.0 | -7.0 | -1.5 |
| ITA | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -4.8 | -8.3 | -2.2 |
| JPN | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -5.7 | -9.9 | -2.0 |
| GBR | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -6.0 | -1.2 |
| ROW | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -5.9 | -1.5 |
| MEX | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -2.2 | -3.8 | -0.9 |
| CAN | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -4.1 | -7.1 | -1.6 |
| OEC | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -4.4 | -7.7 | -1.8 |
| OPC | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -3.2 | -5.5 | -1.3 |
| ARG | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | -3.5 | -6.0 | -1.2 |
| RUS | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -2.0 | -4.6 | -8.0 | -1.9 |
| SAU | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -2.4 | -1.3 |
| TUR | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -3.2 | -5.5 | -1.2 |
| USA | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -4.8 | -8.4 | -1.5 |
| OAS | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -3.6 | -6.3 | -1.5 |
| INO | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -2.8 | -4.7 | -1.3 |
| KOR | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.4 | -3.3 | -5.8 | -1.3 |
India’s GDP loses a whopping 5.3% in scenario 5, but again it is much better than the impact on the other nations’ GDP.
However, when the GDP loss is converted into US dollars, India’s loss ranges from $152 billion to $567 billion, while China is seen to lose up to $1618 billion. The impact on USA is no less severe, with its GDP losing up to $ 1769 billion in the worst-case scenario.
