The TMC-led West Bengal government has already started laying the groundwork for the election, setting the tone with the recent Bengal Global Business Summit and the state Budget.
The West Bengal assembly elections are about a year away but the political storm is already gathering force.
At a press conference after the West Bengal Budget, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, took the Centre head-on and said that the Union Budget was election-oriented.
"When elections come, they make promises, but don't deliver. We don't do that. We allocate funds from our revenue."
From the alleged failure of the Ujjwala scheme to the stampede at Maha Kumbh and central dues owed to West Bengal, Banerjee launched a full-blown attack on the Modi government, finally rounding it off with "the federal structure has been bulldozed".
Her comments came in response to a volley of allegations against her party, the Trinamool Congress, by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
During her reply to the debate on the Union Budget in the Lok Sabha, Sitharaman had said: 'The TMC has institutionalised corruption, gutted institutions, and Trinamool (which in Bengali means grassroots) has become a byword for exploitation.' Banerjee dubbed it 'biased'.
Gearing up
Political analysts believe things are just beginning to heat up ahead of the high-stakes West Bengal assembly elections in 2026.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results put the Bharatiya Janata Party in a tight spot.
The saffron party fell short of an outright majority but formed its third consecutive government at the Centre with coalition partners.
"But if we consider the state elections that followed -- Haryana, Maharashtra, and finally Delhi -- it was the BJP all the way, and the Opposition was routed. This may bolster the BJP to renew its fight for Bengal and Punjab next," said political analyst Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury.
While the Bengal state election is slated for 2026, Punjab will head to the polls in 2027.
"There is a common link between Bengal and Punjab -- both were affected by the refugee influx after Partition in 1947. And both have never been ruled by the BJP. From that perspective, they are important targets for the BJP," Basu Ray Chaudhury pointed out.
Building blocks
The TMC-led West Bengal government has already started laying the groundwork for the election, setting the tone with the recent Bengal Global Business Summit and the state Budget.
The last full Budget before the assembly polls ticks the boxes for rural Bengal, addressing issues, such as road connectivity, river erosion control, and housing.
Funds have been allocated for a masterplan to stop Nodi Bhangan (river erosion).
Riverbank erosion along the Ganga in Malda and Murshidabad has been a long-standing issue. These two districts are also important minority vote banks.
Ghatal in Paschim Medinipur faces perpetual flooding due to a complex network of rivers. The government has decided to implement the Ghatal Master Plan, first conceived in 1959.
While presenting the Budget, West Bengal Finance Minister Chandrima Bhattacharya said that, despite the passage of years, the Ghatal Master Plan had not been approved by the Government of India.
Therefore, the state government has taken up the challenge of implementing it.
The project, expected to be completed in two years, will cost Rs 1,500 crore (Rs 15 billion). Of this, Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 billion) has been allocated in the Budget.
A Nodi Bandhan scheme, interconnecting rivers and wetlands, is being introduced to create livelihood opportunities for the people.
The state has 39 sub-basins and three major river basins, along with a large number of wetlands connected by rivers.
Six economic corridors across the state and support to road connectivity are also expected to boost the rural economy.
Welfare schemes
Women and welfare schemes have been the cornerstone of Banerjee's political success, and the Rs 3.89 trillion Budget for 2025-2026 shows they are here to stay.
The total allocation for the Gender Budget -- covering both 100 per cent women-specific schemes and programmes with 30 to 99 per cent dedicated to the development and empowerment of women -- stands at Rs 1.18 trillion for 2025-2026, a 38.48 per cent increase from the actual expenditure in 2023-2024.
The government has allocated Rs 59,000 crore (Rs 590 billion) for child-specific schemes in the Budget, a 17.75 increase from actual expenditure in 2023-2024.
Abhirup Sarkar, former professor of economics at the Indian Statistical Institute, said: "One can argue that welfare schemes do not create productive assets. But if we focus solely on productive assets, the current generation of poor will not see an improvement in economic status. The trickle-down effect of any investment has a gestation period; it is never immediate.
'Job creation' and 'poverty alleviation; were recurring themes at the Bengal Global Business Summit.
Bengal investor meet
The eighth Bengal Global Business Summit is said to have generated investment proposals worth Rs 4.4 trillion.
Beyond the tall claims and big numbers, many industry representatives believe this was one of the government's best showings.
"Everyone went into Bengal Global Business Summit with subdued expectations, but most seem to have come out somewhat satisfied," said an industry official, adding that Mukesh Ambani's strong advocacy for Bengal was a big endorsement for the state.
Another industry official said the JSW projects were "do-able" and that it was only a matter of time.
Ambani has committed to investing an additional Rs 50,000 crore (Rs 500 billion) by the end of the decade.
There is also a revised timeline for the data centre in Kolkata, now modified to be state-of-the-art and AI-ready, and set to be completed in nine months.
Jio is building Bengal's first cable landing station in Digha, which will be commissioned early next year.
JSW Group Chairman Sajjan Jindal is investing Rs 16,000 crore (Rs 160 billion) in a 1,600 Mw power plant.
However, Opposition parties -- the BJP and the Communist Party of India -Marxist -- have criticised both the investor summit and the Budget.
The BJP dismissed the Budget as 'directionless.'
The next full Budget in West Bengal will be presented by Ashok Lahiri (BJP MLA and former chief economic advisor to the Government of India)," Samik Bhattacharya, chief spokesperson for the West Bengal BJP, told Business Standard.
The BJP had secured a 38.5 per cent vote share in the 2021 assembly election, Bhattacharya said, adding, "The majority section in West Bengal is 73 per cent. So we secured the majority of the majority section, and they will remain with the BJP."
The high-octane Bengal battle last time around had ended in a landslide victory for the TMC with 213 seats in the 294-member West Bengal assembly.
Whether 2026 will be any different remains to be seen.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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