Amid escalating relations between India and Canada, former Indian diplomat KP Fabian said that the ties bewteen two countries will not get better until Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister of Canada.
India on Monday expelled six Canadian diplomats and announced withdrawing its high commissioner and other "targeted" officials from Canada after strongly dismissing Ottawa's allegations linking the envoy to a probe into the killing of Sikh extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in a major downturn in already frosty ties between the two nations.
In a tit-for-tat move, Canada too has asked six Indian diplomats to leave the country after its police collected evidence they were part of an Indian government "campaign of violence".
Fabian said that Canada's designation of Indian diplomats as "persons of interest" was a primary reason for India's diplomatic response.
"This decision is fine because Canada has told us that our high commissioner, among other diplomats, are 'persons of interest' in the context of the investigation for the Nijjar killing. This means that the RCMP, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, are doing their investigation and want to interrogate our high commissioner," Fabian said.
However, he said that this was not acceptable, stating, "This is not okay, and that's the reason we made the decision to call them back."
The former diplomat also pointed out the complexity of the situation, revealing that while India had called back the high commissioner, it had not yet recalled other diplomats.
"We have not yet recalled the other diplomats. It is a little complicated," he said.
On the future of India-Canada relations, Fabian expressed concern about the potential escalation of tensions, cautioning that things may get worse if the current trajectory continues.
"We can hope and pray that both governments give this a deep thought and work towards de-escalating this situation, but I am not fully sure that this may be the case. The signals we have been receiving thus far foreshadow an escalation, and unfortunately, as long as Justin Trudeau remains Prime Minister in Canada, we do not see things getting better," Fabian said.
He also addressed the upcoming Canadian elections, predicting a possible change in leadership.
"The upcoming elections in Canada are in 2025, in autumn that year. If need be they can be advanced to an earlier date, but it's not like Justin Trudeau's popularity is going up. It is actually going down instead. The economy is also in a tricky place. That's why we have a feeling that Justin Trudeau will probably not win the next elections. It will be a new government that is formed instead," he said.
"Our relations, you know, will get better. But I hope that we do not wait until then," he added.
Fabian also expressed concern about the impact of the diplomatic tensions on the Indian diaspora in Canada, particularly younger members who recently moved to the country.
"We have our community in Canada for many years. Back when I was the Secretary to the Government, there were many people from our diaspora in the city as well as the universities, lots of doctors too. Nothing will happen to these people. However, the youngsters going to Canada at the moment, people who have just gone there to study in the recent years and hoping for a good life in Canada, the dream will possibly have to wait for a bit," he said.
Fabian also touched upon the potential for violence from the Khalistani group, a small but active minority within the Sikh community in Canada.
"Thirdly, if there is an escalation, the Khalistani people are a very small minority in the country, the Sikh community. However, they are extremely active, and they have a leadership position as well. Those people, I pray it doesn't happen, but it may be a case where this group initiates violence against Hindus, at places like Hindu Temples, etc.," he said.
