'They will keep him there for quite some time.'
'There are no easy options.'
'It won't be unusual for a foreign power to intervene and get him released after some time, but not immediately.'
Bringing back the Indian Air Force pilot captured by Pakistani forces on Wednesday will not be easy and depend on formal and back-channel negotiations between the two nations and international intervention, experts say.
The Indian pilot's MiG 21 was shot down by Pakistan on Wednesday. India said it shot down a Pakistan F-16 in engagements over the Line of Control.
Pakistan officially said Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was in its custody. Pakistani media and social media circulated videos of him being questioned.
In the absence of a formal declaration of hostilities, the Geneva Convention governing the treatment and repatriation of prisoners of war do not apply.
"The Geneva Convention is applicable to a war or a war-like situation. And, there is no declaration of war yet," says Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak (retd) of the Centre of Air Power Studies.
The Geneva Convention clearly states PoWs must be treated humanely, cannot be prosecuted for taking part in hostilities, and should be released and repatriated without delay after the end of hostilities.
None of these apply to the IAF pilot.
"There are always channels of communication for such situations. Since this time an Indian pilot has been captured, we should initiate talks to get him back," says Air Vice Marshal Kak, putting the onus on the Indian government to begin the process.
P D T Acharya, former secretary-general of the Lok Sabha, says it is unlikely the pilot will be repatriated soon, and a lot will depend on intervention by other global powers.
"They will keep him there for quite some time. There are no easy options. It won't be unusual for a foreign power to intervene and get him released after some time, but not immediately," says Acharya.
"Once the temperature between the nations comes down, we can see some movement. Pakistani PM (Imran Khan) has already talked about dialogue. He seems to be in a conciliatory mood. That only shows there has been intervention by foreign countries," says Acharya.
"If we escalate, you can forget about this boy," warns Wing Commander Praful Bakshi (retd), a security expert.
"There can be talks between the two high commissions and foreign ministries, the two director generals of military operations, even the prime minister's offices," says Wing Commander Bakshi.
All three analysts agreed on one thing: That the IAF pilot won't be mistreated or tortured.
Because he was declared by the Pakistani channels and establishment as being in Pakistan's custody, because his videos were being circulated, it showed that Pakistan is responsible for him now and that sort of gave him protection from any mistreatment, they said.
