New power equations emerge in Tamil Nadu

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

New power equations are being drawn up in Tamil Nadu, all based on party alliances. On side is the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s tie-up with the Tamil Manila Congress; on the other is the vanquished All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s association with the smaller Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

A formal alliance may be forged only before the next elections but the MDMK has already improved its position ensuring the ruling party had a hard time winning by a narrow margin of 12,000 votes in the Pudukottai assembly by-elections last month.

Leaders in both the AIADMK and the MDMK have been vehemently denying they are getting closer, but their fortunes are getting bound tighter after last year's general election. Now leaders from both parties have begun fumbling attempts at a rapprochement.

It started with senior MDMK leader L Ganesan declaring the party's intention to align with 'anyone' to defeat the DMK. Unlike in the past, the party reacted fast, senior AIADMK leader and former minister V R Nedunchezhiyan naming the MDMK as a possible ally.

Now the MDMK clarified through party general secretary V Gopalswami that "there is no general elections in sight now, and we will work to strengthen the party in the meantime". Meanwhile, the MDMK plans to strengthen its base so it can bargain better when an alliance is forged.

A tie-up between the AIADMK and MDMK makes sense. Both parties cannot work with the current DMK leadership under Chief Minister M Karunanidhi. The AIADMK polled the largest single slice of 27 per cent votes in 1996, and the MDMK's six per cent -- it had allied with the CPI-M -- is expected to offset losses caused by AIADMK rebels.

The MDMK stands to gain more against a weakened AIADMK, especially since its own cadres are better motivated. More importantly, the MDMK can give AIADMK the winning edge in crucial constituencies.

There are ego problems to contend with though before a happy marriage can result. V Gopalswami might want former chief minister and AIADMK chief Jayalalitha Jayaram to make way for him, now that she is politically much weaker. She might not comply. Gopalswami may try to ensure that even if an alliance results the AIADMK will not win too often by too large a margin.

There will be a problem of seat-sharing too, especially in the state's southern and western districts. Though the MDMK is still be a minor ally in most constituencies, even in these two regions, it has its strongholds there. But since these have also the traditional support-bases of the AIADMK, seat-sharing may be a problem. The MDMK is likely to have more problems since it is still a nascent political entity.

The DMK and the Pattali Makkal Katchi face a similar problem in the northern districts. They have been trying hard to form an alliance for the last three general elections but, faced with this insurmountable problem, could not reach an agreement.

This alliance has implications for other parties too. The DMK will be forced to continue its alliance with the TMC though it had no plans to separate anyway, concluding that its current alliance could keep it in power. The TMC had announced its intention to go it alone but in the next election may have to shelve the plan. But though top TMC leaders advise against it, there is some rumbling in the ranks about the formation of alliances when the TMC can rule the state all by themselves.