Laloo has advantage after forming new party

Laloo Prasad Yadav's formation of the Rashtriya Janata Dal on Saturday has not only caused a vertical split in the Janata Dal, but is likely to intensify the bitter power struggle with his detractors in the ruling United Front.

By assuring Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral that the split in the JD and the formation of his new party would not harm the UF government, the Bihar chief minister has virtually given notice that he intends to corner his foes one by one and finally re-establish his hegemony.

Laloo Yadav's contention during his convention that JD president Sharad Yadav had emerged as his rival only due to pressure from others made it clear that the Bihar chief minister holds no ill will against Sharad Yadav, only to his backers, former UF prime minister H D Deve Gowda and Ram Vilas Paswan.

Since both Sharad Yadav and Paswan owe their strength in their respective parliamentary constituencies to him, they will have to prepare for this fact Laloo Yadav might use this in the battle for supremacy.

His RJD and his supporters, including 26 MPs (who will henceforth be known as RJD MPs) seem to have become an important power bloc in the ruling combine, one which even the prime minister fears.

Laloo Yadav, during the convention, referred disparagingly to Gujral's efforts for a patch-up between Sharad Yadav and him. He claimed he told the prime minister he could not simultaneously slap him and give him a "rattle" to play with. The message seems to be that even Gujral will have to pay his respects to the RJD and its supporters.

But the Gujral government also depends on the Left parties, which are major constituents of the ruling UF. Left leaders reportedly feel the Union ministers who support the Bihar chief minister should be asked to quit. If this happens, the Gujral government will collapse.

Despite the political advantage which Laloo Yadav seems to have wrested by forming the RJD, an adverse judgment in the fodder scam could derail his plans. He can still appeal to higher courts, but if the judgments there finally send him to jail, it would mean the end of the road for this powerful politician.