'Trump's desire to withdraw the US from some arenas on the global stage will result in ceding space to China.'
"President Trump's desire to withdraw the US from some arenas on the global stage will result in ceding space to China and some big regional powers, which will have a geopolitical fallout," notes Ambassador T S Tirumurti, India's Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations in New York [2020-2022].
Ambassador Tirumurti was President of the UN Security Council for August 2021 and also chair of three committees of the council. India was elected non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council for the eighth time under his stewardship in 2021-2022.
Earlier, he was secretary in the ministry of external affairs dealing with the Arab world, Africa, development partnership and economic relations. He is well-versed in Arabic.
In a career spanning 37 years, Ambassador Tirumurti has served in Cairo, Geneva, Gaza, Washington DC, Jakarta and was India's high commissioner to Malaysia.
He was India's first Representative to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza where he was stationed for two years.
Currently, a distinguished professor at IIT-Madras, he is the author of three books and is married to tennis legend Ramanathan Krishnan's daughter.
In a two-part e-mail interview with Rediff.com's Archana Masih, Ambassador Tirumurti discusses the challenges to diplomacy in the Trump era and how the US president's disregard of multilateralism will result in fragmentation of the geopolitical, security and economic architecture of the world.
What are your thoughts on the fracas that ensued between Presidents Trump, Zelenskyy and Vice President Vance?
World leaders are known to display measured maturity at such meetings -- what lessons does this hold for diplomats and the conduct of international diplomacy with the Trump administration?
Diplomacy is best conducted behind closed doors to be meaningful and fruitful. One can do all the tough bargaining and compromises needed to come to an agreement without the fear of being seen as weak or having arm-twisted the other.
Occasionally, when quiet diplomacy fails, some do resort to the media -- or what we call 'megaphone diplomacy' -- to bring external pressure on the other party.
However, when discussions are held in public or media glare, then the tendency of the parties is to play to their respective gallery, whether domestic or external, resulting in positions becoming more intractable.
The result is almost always unsatisfactory. While countries adopt a negotiating style that suits them the best depending on what is at stake, a spat like this between the leaders of the US and Ukraine in full public glare is only a symptom of failure of negotiations and could have been best avoided by both sides.
It brought into the open an already growing divide between Europe and the US on how to handle Ukraine and Russia. Now any attempt to step back from this spat by either of the parties will only be seen as a 'surrender' by one or the other, which is precisely what diplomacy tries to avoid in the first place.
The United States appears to eschew relationships built over 70-80 years -- siding with Russia at the UN and alienating Europe.
In what ways is Trump's foreign policy likely to upend old ties and change the world order?
President Trump has been quite transparent about what he wants to do right from the beginning of his first term whether with respect to Russia or Europe or NATO or Israel or China or withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and WHO or with respect to domestic issues in the US.
He could not achieve fully many of what he set out to do in the first term and, consequently, he has teed off in the second term from where he left off in the first. What I am surprised is that others are surprised with what he is doing, when they ought to have anticipated it one way or another.
The big difference this time around is that he is fully prepared with a strong team to implement his agenda. Further, during this term, his agenda has to contend with some additional challenges like the Ukraine war, which complicates his move for rapprochement with Russia, and the Gaza war, which complicates his unstinted support to Israel.
I am also convinced that, unlike his last term, he will do a deal with China this time which will go beyond just a trade deal.
All this, combined with President Trump's desire to withdraw the US from some of the arenas on the global stage like he set in motion to withdraw from Afghanistan in his first term, though it fell on President Biden to complete the messy withdrawal -- these will only result in the US ceding space to China and some big regional powers, which will have a geopolitical fall-out.
And finally, his disregard of multilateral bodies and multilateralism will result in fragmentation of the geopolitical, security and economic architecture the world is used to.
IMAGE: Ambassador T S TirumurtiWhat concerns does this raise for Europe and NATO?
Europe and NATO should be concerned since what the US is basically saying that it will no longer bankroll their security in Europe and mollycoddle their economies.
They are being pushed to take more financial and economic responsibility on both these counts. They are also being warned of danger to their societies when, in Munich, US Vice President Vance warned Europe of its intolerance to rise of their right-wing parties, of their 'out of control' migration, stifling of free speech and religious freedoms and of endangering their democratic polity, freedoms and fundamental values.
However, once the rhetoric settles down, I am convinced that the intention is not to kill the transatlantic alliance, but merely reset or reconfigure these ties, something which was probably overdue.
As long as Russia and China have their 'no-limits' partnership, the transatlantic alliance should remain.
When you look around you at the regional conflicts which are raging in Europe, West Asia, Africa etc, you can see that international law and the so-called Western values are being followed by European countries only in the breach making a mockery of what they claim as a rules-based international order.
Therefore, it is indeed time for a reset in Europe and NATO, and probably the unorthodox style of Trump administration will force them to do so.
It will also force them to undertake a more realistic and less emotional review of their ties with Russia.
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