'The BJP is doing politics 24x365, but the Congress revs up only during elections.'
"Madhya Pradesh has become a BJP state. It is the laboratory of the BJP since the formation of the state. The party has strong roots and this 2023 victory has strengthened those roots further," says Professor Yatindra Singh Sisodia, Director, Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain.
The author-editor of 22 books, Professor Sisodia's areas of interest are democracy, decentralised governance, electoral politics, tribal issues, and developmental issues.
"The Congress has to revisit its politics in the third decade of the 21st century. They are still doing the politics of the 1980s and 1990s which is not working," Professor Sisodia tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih.
The scale of the BJP's victory in Madhya Pradesh is unprecedented. What impact is this going to have on the state and on the Lok Sabha election next year?
The biggest story of this election has come from Madhya Pradesh. The result in MP is extraordinary. The BJP has won 163 seats with a vote share of 48.56% votes which is unprecedented.
Even in 2003 when there was huge anti-incumbency against the incumbent Congress government and the BJP won 173 seats, the voter percentage in favour of BJP was 42.5%.
The vote share received by the party in 2023 is extraordinary for any political party in the state assembly election.
The sweeping victory in the Hindi heartland will have enormous impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
It is a win-win situation for the BJP and a huge setback for the INDIA alliance.
What are the reasons for this extraordinary performance in MP?
1. The Modi magic and guarantee offered by the prime minister powered the BJP's victory.
2. Well-oiled machinery. Booth level micromanagement.
3. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's model of governance, especially women-centric schemes.
4. Majoritarian Hindutva politics.
5. Enormous resources to reach the voters.
There has been a quantum jump in the BJP's committed vote bank in the state. The party has created a solid voter base which will remain with the party for a long time.
What accounts for this 7.5% jump in vote share for the BJP?
Emotional and sentimental issues outshined issues of anti-incumbency, fatigue, corruption and unemployment.
All these issues were pushed to the background by the committed, sizeable, BJP voter.
Majoritarian Hindutva politics and issues like Sanatan Dharma, the Ram temple has captivated the minds of the people. They are engrossed in these issues.
Modi at the Centre and Chouhan in the state are seen as the true saviours and propagators of religious sentimental issues. This has percolated down caste, class and gender.
The urban rural divide has been blurred in this election.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan seemed on a weak footing at the beginning of the campaign, but gained ground in the course of the campaign. What changed?
Yes, it did appear that there would be a change in government at the beginning of the campaign, but the counter-narrative offered by the Congress was primarily a long list of freebies. The electorate was not lured by this.
The Congress campaign was scattered. The party was confident that people would vote for change which made them complacent. They did not gauge the booth level mobilisation of the BJP.
Do you think Shivraj Singh Chouhan will be retained as CM since the BJP won this mandate under his leadership?
He could be the CM for the 5th term and stay on till 2024 at least.
The party has performed very well under him and he is still in his 60s. Even if there is a change of guard, he will be given a respectful central ministership.
Secondly, he is the tallest OBC leader and retaining him as CM will send a good message. Unless, of course, the BJP is planning a surprise.
What about Jyotiraditya Scindia? What role is he likely to play in the next 5 years?
He is among the top three BJP leaders in the state. His candidature as CM cannot be ruled out. He is popular, articulate and suitable. He also has good relations with the top central leadership.
Yet, Shivraj Singh Chouhan remains the strongest candidate for chief minister.
You mentioned the BJP's Hindutva and identity politics which appeals to the sentiments of voters. What impact has it had on minorities?
MP is peculiar in the sense. The Muslims account for just 6.5% spread sparsely throughout the state.
They are in significant numbers in 2-3 assembly constituencies. Two Congress MLAs have been elected from Bhopal.
The Muslims presence is not spread across the state evenly and therefore the Hindu-Muslim issue is only confined to certain pockets.
Since the BJP has been in power for nearly 20 years, is it practically impossible for the Congress to return to power in MP? Is MP headed the Gujarat way into becoming a BJP state?
MP has become a BJP state. It is the laboratory of BJP since the formation of the state. The party has strong roots and this 2023 victory has strengthened those roots further.
The Congress hinged its campaign on two leaders -- both over 75. The Congress has to revisit its politics in the third decade of the 21st century.
They are still doing the politics of the 1980s and 1990s which is not working. Even one wrong word unacceptable to the masses cannot be uttered publically or on social media. The Congress needs a complete overhaul, new leadership, organisational strength and different mechanism.
In these next 5 years, the party needs to come up with a strong counter narrative in the state. The strength of the party is its core base of SC, ST and minorities. It has won sizable ST seats, but that is not enough to stay in the race.
The party have lost 0.5% vote which is not much, but the BJP has increased its vote share by 7.5% which has come at the expense of the BSP and others. The BSP which usually got 5%-7% votes has fallen to 3.40%.
This shift in votes has powered BJP to victory.
This victory also shows that Hindutva-lite pushed by Kamal Nath did not work because that space already belongs to the BJP. What change in messaging can the Congress employ?
Hindutva politics is the plank of BJP. They thought they will go into the BJP' space and defeat them with their [BJP's] own idea of politics. This was a monumental mistake.
The background and ideology of the Congress is different. It should confine itself with ideas of welfare, social democracy and engaging with vulnerable sections, SC/ST around the clock.
Politics cannot be a part time job. The BJP is doing politics 24x365, but the Congress revs up only during elections. It also has a very slow decision making process and status-quoist mindset.
The Congress needs a churn. They need to articulate ideas to provide a counter-narrative.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
