'The southern states will have no voice.'
'Political parties in future need to focus only on one region, the northern region, to win the general election.'
It is only early 2025 but the battleground for the 2026 assembly elections is drawn in Tamil Nadu.
It is evident that the National Education Policy, the 3-language formula put forward by the Centre, and delimitation will be major planks on which the election will be fought.
Are the people of Tamil Nadu behind Chief Minister M K Stalin on the way the Centre is imposing Hindi on them?
Are they worried that with delimitation, Tamil Nadu and the other southern states will lose seats and their representation in Parliament?
Dr Ramu Manivannan is a former head of the department of politics and public administration, and former director of the Centre for Dravidian Research and Studies at Madras University.
Dr Manivannan also served as Fulbright Professor and Community Scholar at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.
"The concerns are not just about the southern states alone. It is also about West Bengal. It is also about Odisha. It is also about the north eastern states. So, we need to relook at the whole representation mechanism," Dr Manivannan tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.
"Look at a country like China. It has about 2,900 members in the legislature. We have overtaken China in population. But we are still talking about increasing to 800."
First, M K Stalin got the southern states to agree on the way the 3-language formula is forced upon them.
Now he has been able to bring almost all the political parties in Tamil Nadu for an all-party meet on delimitation.
Do you think Round 1 has gone to Stalin and the DMK against the BJP at the Centre?
Certainly, though I don't want to look at it as for or against.
In terms of consolidating the concerns and rights of the southern states, on both these aspects, Stalin has taken the right moves.
Do you think the DMK has begun preparations for the 2026 election with these two major issues?
It is yes and no because these are permanent concerns of the state whether it is the 3-language formula or 2 language formula. Along with that is the delimitation issue.
Delimitation is much more serious than what we imagine. I am not exaggerating or trying to aggravate the perception.
The BJP doesn't want anyone to talk about it until 2026! This is the not the way to expect things to work in a democracy.
Home Minster Amit Shah said that Tamil Nadu would not lose any seats due to delimitation.
But many reports say that because of proportional representation, southern states will lose seats and northern states like UP, Bihar are going to gain.
Where does the truth lie?
Through statistical manipulation of numbers, they are trying to convince people that southern states are not going to lose seats.
They are not saying Tamil Nadu and other southern states will gain more seats; they are saying, your numbers will not reduce.
At the same time, the numbers will increase for the northern states.
What does this mean?
When you say, our numbers will not decrease but the numbers will increase for the northern states, it amounts to the same thing.
Whether the increase is proportionate or disproportionate, the measure you are applying is not convincing. Because the southern states have implemented population strategies very successfully, they feel they are being punished for that.
If you take the population of Tamil Nadu in 1951, it was marginally higher than Bihar. By 1971, the population in Bihar was higher than Tamil Nadu. Today, the difference is around 10 crores, which is huge!
The same applies to UP too.
The difference between the population of Kerala and MP is an increase of 300% for MP.
The increase in the population in these big states is certainly going to affect the representation of southern states.
The most important concern about representation in democracy is, you have to remain relevant electorally and politically.
When the elections are about deciding the majority, then it will be determined by the northern states alone, and the southern states will have no voice.
The BJP has not been able to make a significant presence in the southern states. With this, they can just concentrate on the northern states to rule the country.
This will be the case for any other party in future, that they need to focus only on one region, the northern region, to win the general election.
Whether they develop the region or not, they will only need to appease the region while the southern and eastern states have to take care of themselves.
And they will remain irrelevant politically. This is a very, very, serious concern unless you create a level-playing ground or equilibrium.
How can you bring in a level-playing ground in a situation like this when you are talking about proportionate representation, and when the southern states will have less number of people while the northern states have much, much, more?
That's why it is time to talk about Constitutional reviews, Constitutional recommendations and Constitutional amendments.
Whether it is the BJP or the Congress when they want to bring in an amendment, they do not hesitate to do so. But if they do not want an amendment, they will not do it. That is the status quo of the situation.
Mrs (Indira) Gandhi was able to bring in a political amendment to have the Emergency.
And the present government was able to achieve so many amendments in the last tenure because of the numbers.
Now that we have to look at important issues like delimitation, why can't we look at an amendment of the Constitution?
Stalin talks about using the 1971 Census as the basis for the next 30 years. Is it possible?
The date can be negotiable. It can be 1971 or any other date.
Whether it is possible or not, we are in this situation because of the failure of the political parties and political system.
The reality is, people in the northern states are also not adequately represented. For example, having 30 lakh, 35 lakh people in one constituency is injustice to the northern states.
There is a serious drawback in the political governance, and they have failed us, the people of this country collectively.
They failed both the northern states and the southern states. But the problem is, they keep appeasing the northern states.
The northern states have 5-6 prime ministers representing even one state like UP, but they have done nothing in terms of human development, or social development like education and healthcare.
The concerns are not just about the southern states alone. It is also about West Bengal. It is also about Odisha. It is also about the north eastern states.
So, we need to relook at the whole representation mechanism.
Look at a country like China. It has about 2,900 members in the legislature. We have overtaken China in population. But we are still talking about increasing to 800.
We have to radically increase the number, but the distribution has to be equitable.
You have to apply certain measures of justice.
You have to look at regional democracy as well.
It means we are looking at proportional and pro rata of population.
You have to also incentivise and disincentivise states for what achieve and what they don't. It is logical to do so.
For example, if you are using the 2011 Census as the benchmark, you use incentives and disincentives for awarding and rewarding and punishing states. That's the only way we can go forward.
Any increase and decrease will have to be consistent with the existing differentiation. What is the difference between UP and Bihar and Odisha and Tamil Nadu?
Maintain the same difference. Don't take away the base line. Don't take away the existing differentiation.
Otherwise, it will disfranchise the southern states and in the long run, we will become irrelevant electorally.
IMAGE: Dr Ramu ManivannanWhich is dangerous...
Yes, it is very dangerous unless greater common sense prevails with the ruling class...
We want linguistic democracy as well.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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