'Pakistan Seen As A State Devoid Of Hope'

'No military offensive by Pakistan will end the insurgency in Balochistan without simultaneous, concerted efforts toward political dialogue to de-escalate tensions.'

"Afghanistan, Iran, and the security of Pakistan's nuclear programme are issues that will inevitably draw Trump's attention.

"When that happens, Washington will likely note China's growing presence in Gwadar and seek to exploit local Baloch resentment toward Beijing," notes journalist and Balochistan specialist Malik Siraj Akbar who sought political asylum in the USA in the face of threats from the Pakistani State.

"The US could potentially leverage this discontent to counter China's regional influence and capitalise on Balochistan's vulnerabilities to pressure Pakistan into meeting US demands," he tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih in the second segment of an interview on Pakistan's missteps fuelling anger in Balochistan.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Blaming India Is Pakistan's Go-To Excuse'

Where do you think Balochistan figures in Trump's inward-looking worldview?

Even if President Trump pursues an America first policy, the consequences of America's disengagement from the world will be far-reaching.

In Balochistan's context, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has significantly benefited Baloch nationalists by curtailing funding and training opportunities for Pakistani paramilitary forces, which were previously rampant under the pretext of the war on terror.

However, Trump cannot afford to ignore the region for long. Afghanistan, Iran, and the security of Pakistan's nuclear programme are issues that will inevitably draw his administration's attention.

When that happens, Washington will likely note China's growing presence in Gwadar and seek to exploit local Baloch resentment toward Beijing. The US could potentially leverage this discontent to counter China's regional influence.

Given Trump's unpredictable nature, it wouldn't be surprising if his administration attempted to capitalise on Balochistan's vulnerabilities to pressure Pakistan into meeting US demands.

In view of the Baloch Liberation Army's increased attacks in the last year, do you think the Pakistan army will launch an offensive against it?

No military offensive by Pakistan will end the insurgency in Balochistan without simultaneous, concerted efforts toward political dialogue to de-escalate tensions.

Although the Jaffar Express episode resulted in significant gains for the Pakistani military and a setback for the BLA, the broader insurgency still favours the BLA for several key reasons.

Most Pakistani military and Frontier Corps personnel are from Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, unfamiliar with Balochistan's complex terrain, hidden escape routes, and local safe havens.

They also lack knowledge of the Balochi and Brahui languages and customs, making it harder to operate effectively.

In contrast, BLA fighters have the advantage of intimate familiarity with the region. Their ability to strike and swiftly retreat, coupled with the protection and support they receive from local communities, gives them a strategic edge.

Pakistan has relied on force to crush Baloch insurgencies in the past, but the current challenge is different. The growing disillusionment among Baloch youth, who see Pakistan as a State devoid of hope and justice, is fuelling the insurgency.

More young men and women are joining the rebels than siding with the government or supporting its narrative.

Military operations cannot reverse this trend.

Ironically, even the deaths of insurgents serve as propaganda gold for groups like the BLA, strengthening their recruitment campaigns.

Ignoring the need for political dialogue and clinging to a force-centric approach will only deepen the conflict. No matter how difficult, Pakistan must prioritise a political solution -- however frustrating and exhausting -- if it hopes to address the underlying grievances driving the insurgency.

In the ever increasing gulf between Balochistan and Islamabad what is driving young Balochis to the BLA?

Pakistan's outright denial of its own policies and practices -- such as enforced disappearances and police brutality -- that harm the Baloch people is a major driver of growing frustration among Baloch youth.

It is one thing for a single institution, like the military, to pursue a flawed strategy, but one would expect other institutions, such as the judiciary, to demonstrate greater fairness in addressing Baloch grievances, particularly their quest for justice and equal treatment.

However, even the country's mainstream political parties, such as the Pakistan People's Party -- which governs Balochistan -- and the Pakistan Muslim League, whose leader serves as the current prime minister of Pakistan, show little genuine interest in proactively tackling Balochistan's issues.

While one may disagree with the BLA's use of armed resistance to fight for Baloch rights, the excessive labelling of BLA fighters as 'Baloch terrorists' or 'foreign-funded enemies of Pakistan' by the Pakistani media and politicians only exacerbates the situation.

When officials declare that BLA fighters killed in operations are destined for hell, it further alienates the Baloch youth.

Instead of addressing the legitimate grievances fuelling Baloch anger, the State doubles down on demonising the insurgents, making young Baloch feel as though their own government is waging war against them.

The recent refusal by the Pakistani government to hand over the bodies of BLA fighters killed in the Jaffar Express operation has added fuel to fire.

For many Balochs, this refusal is seen as the State's attempt to humiliate even their dead. Such missteps only deepen resentment, radicalise more young people, and ultimately strengthen the BLA's recruitment efforts.

Some reports suggest China will deploy its military to protect Chinese engineers and workers working on the CPEC in Balochistan -- how do you see the role of the Chinese military change in the region in view of escalating attacks?

Pakistan has no shortage of troops to guard ongoing development projects. However, regardless of troop deployments, these projects will continue to face insurgent threats unless they gain local Baloch buy-in and ownership.

As long as the Balochs perceive these projects as benefiting Pakistanis and Chinese rather than themselves, resistance will persist.

Moreover, excessive militarisation will ultimately undermine these initiatives -- business cannot thrive in a warzone.

Rather than merely increasing security forces, China should leverage its influence over Pakistan to push for better relations with the Baloch people.

Without their (Baloch

Unfortunately, such a shift seems unlikely. As an authoritarian regime, China is unaccustomed to negotiating with dissenting voices and fostering inclusive dialogue.

Balochistan needs a democratic, participatory approach -- something Islamabad and Beijing struggle with due to their governance models, prioritising force over engagement.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com