'There will be no change of seats for Delhi, Assam and Maharashtra.'
'Andhra, J&K, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana will lose seats while there will be an increase for MP, UP, Bihar, Haryana, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.'
'It is a big mistake if you make it a north-south issue.'
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin took the initiative to invite the chief ministers of those states that are going to lose seats when the delimitation exercise happens in 2026 after the next census.
The chief ministers of the southern states (except N Chandrababu Naidu who is part of the ruling National Democratic Alliance) and Punjab were in Chennai to attend the meeting.
The grouse of the southern states is that the states that have implemented population control effectively are going to be penalised by losing seats due to delimitation.
And the state that is going to gain the most is UP! Then Bihar.
The southern states have asked for a 25-year freeze on delimitation. It means, don't do it now, do it later. But then, is that the solution to the problem?
Professor S Irudaya Rajan, demographer and an expert on migration, was formerly at the Centre for Development Studies, Kerala.
He is currently Chair of the International Institute for Migration and Development and also Chair of the KNOMAD (The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development) World Bank working group on internal migration and urbanisation.
"Tamil Nadu has 39 MPs now, but if the total number of MPs is increased, its representation can also grow proportionally," Professor Irudaya Rajan tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.
At the Joint Action Committee meeting in Chennai, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said, delimitation is like a Damocles sword hanging over the southern states and also some other states. Do you also feel so?
First, I want to emphasise that it is not a south vrsus north issue. This narrative has to go because delimitation is going to affect many states.
It is not a problem that is going to affect the southern states alone.
I want to divide the country into two groups as far as the issue of delimitation goes: The losing states and the gaining states.
What I want to emphasise is this issue goes beyond southern and northern states.
For example, there will be no change of seats for Delhi, Assam and Maharashtra.
Andhra, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana will lose seats while there will be an increase for MP, UP, Bihar, Haryana, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
It is a big mistake if you make it a north-south issue.
So, if Stalin wanted to have a meeting, he should invite all the states.
I would go on to say, the gaining states also should be at the meeting. There should be a dialogue between both sides.
Now, only the losing states are talking, and we are hearing only their argument. Let the other side also join the debate.
Is it necessary that there should be a delimitation exercise right now? The states that attended the JAC wanted to freeze delimitation for another 25 years...
I am not a politician and I don't talk politics.
But as a demographer, I want to know why they want to postpone it again when it has already been postponed.
If you need surgery right now, will you postpone it for 25 years? If you postpone the surgery indefinitely, you will end up dying.
It is like an issue was earlier postponed by your grandfather and now, it is your turn to take a decision. But you don't want to take a decision. So, you want to pass it on to your grandchild.
I want to tell everyone, own your responsibility and solve the problem now.
I am of the view that we should not postpone it for another 10 or 25 years. Okay, you have postponed it for another 25 years. After 25 years, what? Will you postpone it for another 25 years?
I think the time has come for a discussion to find a solution to the problem.
I don't want my son and grandchildren to solve this problem. I will solve the problem.
Many demographers may not agree with me, but this is my opinion.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said a committee would be set up to come to a decision which everyone should accept...
The committee should have demographers and not politicians alone.
Who would you consult if you have cancer? An oncologist or a general physician or a diabetologist?
This was what happened during the lockdown too. There was no migration expert in the government committee who advised the prime minister on the lockdown.
There were only medical doctors. There were no social scientists. What do doctors know about migrants?
Similarly, this is a demographic issue, and demographers should be talking about it.
But it has become just a political debate when it has to be an academic as well as political debate.
As a demographer, how do you solve the delimitation issue?
I will start with an example. Tamil Nadu has 39 MPs in the Lok Sabha out of 543.
Out of the total 543 seats, only 524 seats are applicable for delimitation.
19 seats are not applicable. For example, Lakshadweep will have 1 MP irrespective of the population of the island. There are 19 such seats which are not limited by the size of the population.
So, only in the 524 seats, we look at population as the variable.
Now, in the case of Tamil Nadu, it has 7.4% MPs in Parliament.
You can say Tamil Nadu has 8 MPs out of 100 in India. On the other hand, UP has 15 MPs.
If you fix the number of MPs in the new Parliament as 800 -- whatever number you want but fix the number -- Tamil Nadu will have 64 MPs and UP will have 120 MPs.
This way, there is a proportional increase for everyone.
This is just one plan. There are several ways you can solve this problem.
Another option is by increasing the Rajya Sabha seats of those states that are losing seats due to delimitation.
The next option I have is about vote-value. Right now, it is one person, one vote and one value.
Why can't we tweak the idea of one person, one vote for the states that do well? Why not increase the value of one vote there?
For example, why not give two values for one vote to a person from Kerala?
We can give different values for the votes of different states. Perhaps, the value of a vote in Andhra can be 1.2 while the value of a vote in UP can be 0.9.
Next is the case of migrants.
Do you know 400 million migrants are not getting a chance to vote when you are talking about one nation, one election?
Why don't you let the migrant from UP who are living in Kerala to vote there?
Even for the assembly elections, why can't the migrant vote in Kerala or Tamil Nadu as he is a resident here?
Why do you expect a migrant from Odisha in Kerala to go to Odisha to vote?
Around 2.2 million Malayalis are living outside the country and another 0.8 million are living anywhere in India. It means 3 million Malayalis are living outside the state.
Another interesting fact is, 3 million people from other states live in Kerala.
In effect, the state loses 6 million votes.
IMAGE: Professor S Irudaya Rajan.
You mean, this is the right time to bring the migrants into electoral politics.
Yes, when you have 600 million people living in places where they are not born.
This is the right time to bring in voting for the migrants. In a democracy, it has to happen.
We should accept the fact that migrants are also part of the electoral process.
You talk about digital India, and in digital India, a person should be able to vote from anywhere.
If it happens, the voting percentage will go up from 60% to 75%.
So, this also has to be treated along with delimitation.
It is said that 36% of India's GDP is contributed by 19% of the population in the south. If this is so, like you said earlier, the value of their vote should be more...
Yes. That's why you can't say, there is only one value for one vote.
That's also why this is the right time to sit and debate all these issues.
But what do these politicians want? They want to postpone and shirk the responsibility.
The idea of postponement should not be discussed at all.
It is good that the chief minister of Tamil Nadu has taken the initiative for a debate on delimitation.
This issue can be solved amicably only if you don't play politics.
I want everyone to understand that it is not a problem of the south alone. It is beyond south, beyond Tamil Nadu, beyond Kerala....
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com
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