'China Should Have Alerted Nepal'

'The trigger for the flood was definitely natural, but the damage that it caused was human-made.'

The Nepal floods are not just another Himalayan disaster. They are a warning.

A massive ice avalanche, a blocked river, hours of silence and then a sudden release of water that turned into a deadly flash flood.

The disaster has once again exposed how vulnerable the Himalayan region is to extreme weather events, and how the combination of climate change, unchecked construction and poor disaster preparedness can turn a natural event into a catastrophe.

But there is another troubling question: Could the devastation have been reduced if timely information had been shared across the border?

With rivers flowing across China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh, disasters in the Himalayas do not respect political boundaries.

Yet, countries sharing these fragile river basins continue to largely operate in silos.

So, what exactly triggered the Nepal floods? How much of the destruction was caused by nature -- and how much by human failure?

And is the region witnessing new pattern of increasingly frequent and extreme disasters?

Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff spoke to Professor Vimal Khawas from the Special Centre for the Study of North East India at Jawaharlal Nehru University, to understand what the Nepal disaster tells us about the future of the Himalayas -- and why the next catastrophe may already be taking shape.

Why did the Nepal floods occur, what were the reasons for it?

This phenomenon that happened in Nepal is not a new one and it happens across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region over the years.

The only problem now is the intensity and the frequency of such incidents in the region causing damage.

There are a lot of drivers at play in which a very important driver is climate change.

Changing climate is affecting the Himalayan region very badly.

The other problem is that along with changing climate our behaviour and habits are not changing.

We are constructing in vulnerable areas. We are degrading the environment and we are cutting down the forests.

All the floodplains in the river basin are now inhabited by people. This is what happened across the river belt in Nepal.

'Climatic Change Is Causing So Much Cloud Outburst And Floods That Their Frequency Has Increased'

Does it mean that these people should not be staying where they were because it is a known flood-prone area?

These people have been staying there for years and subsequent governments allowed them to stay.

But now with new climatic vulnerability the government should have thought of rehabilitating all these people staying in vulnerable areas, because this was bound to happen.

Climatic change is causing so much cloud outburst and floods that their frequency has increased.

The catastrophic flood at Dharali in Uttarkashi happened in August 2025.

The Sikkim flood outburst was in 2023 so there is a trend now of these events.

The problem is that we are not walking on the ground although we have rules and regulations. Also, disaster management plans are on paper but on the field nothing has moved.

Institutional mobility is not there, possibly that is one of the factors.

What is the reason for this flood in Nepal? What is your assessment?

The reports what I read on the public platforms is that a very large chunk of (ice) avalanche fell down which obstructed the flow of a small river, Lhende in Tibet, that was flowing towards Nepal.

This river water flow obstruction took place for several hours and no one noticed it, that is the tragedy.

We in 2026 talk of development and technology advancement.

We see everything from space, but unfortunately, nobody noticed this huge chunk of avalanche falling down and obstructing the river path.

Finally, the water gave way, causing the flash flood. The river water force hit at high speed at the Tibet-Nepal checkpost after which the river caused mayhem.

'If We Do Not Share Data This Is What Will Happen'

Can we say the Chinese government is responsible for this tragedy as it did not alert Nepal about this huge ice chunk falling and obstructing the Lhende river flow in Tibet which eventually led to the flash flood?

The trigger for the flood was definitely natural, but the damage that it caused was human-made.

It was China's duty to monitor and inform the downstream counterparts, which it did not.

Most of the rivers in the Himalayan region are majorly trans-boundary in nature.

This means we share the common catchment among Tibet, China, Nepal and India.

In a shared basin like this, if we do not work and share data this is what will happen.

This is where the experts feel China should have monitored the situation well and should have informed its downstream counterpart at the right time, which did not happen.

Therefore, to prevent future disasters, timely sharing of information is a must

Does China have the technology to monitor such events in the mountainous Himalayan region?

Yes, why not? China has the technology and so has India.

There are so many instruments that can be placed in these critical areas where second to second incidents are recorded.

We have installed it so information comes to us immediately (if there is some disturbance in the Himalayas).

'Working In Isolation Is Not The Answer'

There are eight countries of the Hindu Kush in the Himalayas so what should each one do to avoid this kind of situation?

It is very important for us to understand that these rivers do not identify or recognise borders. They do not understand boundaries.

It is very important in South Asia -- basically four nations, China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh share a common river basin.

Now if you want to secure human future and security in the light of climate change we have to come together and have holistic integrated systems.

If anything happens in the upper parts of catchment the damage will definitely travel down to middle and lower catchments.

Working in isolation is not the answer, which we are doing.

The way forward is to look across river basins as a common space that we share.

Whatever happens there will impact all of us. Accordingly we have to work out a comprehensive platform where the voice of all who reside in the basin is addressed.

It is here that all the government must come forward.

Institutions like International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) really need to bring all these countries on a common platform and work on a common framework.

Is this flood now a warning to all the countries in the Himalayas that you have to take the Nepal flood seriously or more trouble awaits in the future?

If you see the Himalayas Nepal is the nucleus. It is at the heart of the Himalayas.

A major part of the Himalayas falls within Nepal.

It is quite obvious that the kind of climate change we are seeing in the last 10 years, these kind of incidents will increase in future if we do not work cautiously or move ahead in our development paradigm cautiously.

Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim are vulnerable and we need to be serious. We need to be serious in adaptation, mitigation programmes and work on disaster management policies.

And most importantly, cooperative work is the need of the hour because we all are dependent and not independent.