'The message is loud and clear: "If you're not falling in line, we will open a line of understanding with the MNS, and then the Shiv Sena will be in trouble".'
As Maharashtra gears up for the much-anticipated BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation elections, the state's political landscape is undergoing rapid shifts, with unexpected meetings and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres fuelling speculation.
The recent meeting between Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray set tongues wagging.
Coming on the heels of multiple social interactions between Raj Thackeray and his estranged cousin Uddhav Thackeray, these meetings suggest that old rivalries are giving way to new political equations.
While the BMC elections are yet to be announced, political parties have already started strategising. Fadnavis' outreach to Raj Thackeray is widely seen as a pressure tactic on Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, whose Shiv Sena faction is the BJP's ally but has yet to establish dominance in Mumbai.
The MNS, despite his party's reduced strength, remains a crucial factor with 4,000 to 5,000 votes per ward -- enough to tilt the scales in a tightly contested BMC election where victory margins get narrower and narrower.
Could this be the beginning of a tactical BJP-MNS understanding?
Will Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray bury their differences? With Shinde's grip on Mumbai politics under question, the power dynamics in Maharashtra are becoming more intriguing by the day.
Kiran Tare, a discerning political observer with over two decades experience of reporting in Maharashtra, shares his insights on the political alignments and realignments with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com.
How decisive are these 5,000 votes?
In every BMC ward, election results are decided by very narrow margins. In this context, 5,000 is a huge number in a ward. Even 500 to 700 votes can decide victory.
I think the BJP will use the MNS to pressurise Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. The message is loud and clear: 'If you're not falling in line, we will open a line of understanding with the MNS, and then the Shiv Sena will be in trouble.'
That is perhaps the message that Fadnavis has sent to Eknath Shinde.
Which party will the MNS possibly align with? Could it align with the Shiv Sena (UBT)?
Meeting at weddings (Uddhav Thackeray-Raj Thackeray) is different from political alliances.
Raj had taken an initiative to join hands with Uddhav in 2014 when the BJP snapped ties (with the undivided Shiv Sena). Raj had clearly stated his desire to fight elections together, but Uddhav kept Raj waiting, and he's still waiting.
I don't think they'll come together now, but Raj might have some kind of seat-sharing arrangement with Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena because both the MNS and Shiv Sena don't have huge presence all across Mumbai so their vote shares can complement each other's in a significant number of wards.
Plus, the BJP as part of the Mahayuti, they can decisively work out a plan together.
A direct alliance between the BJP and MNS would be detrimental for the BJP since the MNS is still known as an anti-North Indian party, and the BJP has a large chunk of supporters among North Indians.
I don't think BJP will have a direct alliance, but they will find a way to accommodate the MNS indirectly.
How significant is the MNS in the BMC elections if it were to fight independently?
In the last two BMC elections, the MNS won only seven seats. They don't have the strength to go beyond 10 seats. It's not about the MNS being a powerful party, but the MNS could easily be a spoiler.
If the MNS works against the Mahayuti, Uddhav's party is going to benefit.
Conversely, if the MNS fields candidates against Uddhav's candidates, it directly benefits the Mahayuti.
We're not considering the Congress and NCP in Mumbai because they don't have any strength. They are practically powerless without any significant following in the city.
The fight is primarily between the BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT).
Why do you think Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena stands a chance in Mumbai? Many political observers say Shinde is strong only in Thane.
You can't write off Shinde in Mumbai. It's not about Eknath Shinde -- it's about the Shiv Sena's election symbol, the bow and arrow. People are fond of the party symbol. That's the clear message.
The feeling is it is Balasaheb's party and the Shiv Sena and the bow and arrow has to remain alive in Mumbai.
If somebody can take on the mighty and powerful BJP, it's the Shiv Sena and not Uddhav Thackeray. Even if the Shiv Sena wins 50, 60 seats out of 227, that will make them a significant power bloc in Mumbai.
How crucial is this election for the Shiv Sena (UBT), especially after its drubbing in the Vidhan Sabha election?
BMC has been the oxygen for Uddhav Thackeray as a leader. He has been managing to run BMC since 1997 without a break -- through money, influence, and networking. With a huge budget of Rs 74,000 crore (Rs 740 billion), you can imagine its significance.
If Uddhav doesn't get to rule BMC, his '(financial) supply line' -- speaking metaphorically -- will be cut. His oxygen will be cut. That will be the biggest blow (to his party).
However, this won't necessarily finish off the Shiv Sena (UBT). It's a 50-year-old party; it cannot be finished by just one election. But, of course, it could be a final nail in the coffin if they don't bounce back. The next election will be five years later.
What will Uddhav Thackeray do between 2025 and 2030?
How is the relationship between Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis?
My reading is that they don't see eye to eye.
Shinde has been neglected from politically crucial postings like the disaster management committee even as the other deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar finds a place.
Eknath Shinde's dream projects like the Shiv Bhojan Thali and religious tourism are almost scrapped citing budgetary constraints.
His party's proposed names for personal security and OSDs to ministers haven't been cleared. The chief minister (Devendra Fadnavis) didn't even wish him (Eknath Shinde) on his birthday (February 9).
All these things indicate something is amiss between them. They are not on good terms or on the same page -- whether it's politics or a power struggle, the tension is evident.
Why has Eknath Shinde's value as a strong ally diminished?
Fortunately for Shinde, he has very good relationships with the BJP's top leadership -- Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. So even if Devendra Fadnavis doesn't like Shinde, he has Delhi's blessing.
As long as he enjoys that blessing, his position will remain secure. He doesn't have any reason to fear about lack of his political charisma or relevance in the state.
However, if his party doesn't perform well in local body elections, the BJP might activate its contingency plan to either break his party or form new alliances. The NCP is already in the alliance, so they don't really need Shinde's party to run the government.
They need Shinde because he represents Marathi Asmita -- the regional aspirations of the Marathis. That is why the BJP needs Shinde.
If the BJP kicks out Eknath Shinde then it surely will reflect poorly on the BJP's image as the BJP is branded as an anti-regional party force.
Amit Shah and Narendra Modi understand this nuance of Maharashtra politics and that's the reason they are mollycoddling Shinde.
Can one infer that Modi and Shah are cultivating Shinde to keep a check on Fadnavis' rising national clout?
That phase has passed now. Fadnavis has a bigger clout than Shinde. They need Shinde because they want to expand across the state.
The BJP is not happy by winning the Vidhan Sabha; they want to win all the rural local self-governments like the zilla parishads, municipal corporations, municipal councils and gram panchayats.
The BJP can't become the dominant party in the state through assembly elections alone. BJP cadres and RSS cadres don't trust Ajit Pawar and his NCP and see Shinde as a better alternative who aligns well with the BJP's Hindutva appeal than Ajit Pawar.
Shinde is a very down-to-earth politician. He is not arrogant. He is accessible. That is his biggest advantage.
To cut Devendra Fadnavis to size, you need another Devendra Fadnavis. Shinde cannot do that because Shinde has limitations -- he's a man on the ground but lacks long-term political vision.
Fadnavis, being chief minister, has access to top industrialists and Bollywood personalities, who are major influencers. He's cultivating these contacts because he has national ambitions.
If he wants to become another Modi or replace him in 2029 or whenever, he understands that he needs support from both India Inc and Bollywood, which are fortunately for him, headquartered in Mumbai. This gives him an advantage than even Yogi Adityanath doesn't have.
Fadnavis knows these two influential and powerful lobbies would vouch for him whenever stage is ripe for his ascendance in national politics.
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