'In the interim, India will be confronted with anti-India feeling because Sheikh Hasina had India's support.'
'We will have to deal with it, but it will not be a permanent phenomenon.'
'There is substantial goodwill towards India which will stand us in good stead.'
"Disorder in the neighbourhood is not the best prospect that one wants. The concern would be that it should not be taken advantage of by those inimical to India," says Amitabh Mathur, retired Special Secretary at the Cabinet Secretariat and a Bangladesh watcher for decades.
In an interview to Rediff.com's Archana Masih, Mr Mathur discusses the dramatic, rapid developments in Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina's ouster and what it means for India.
As a Bangladesh watcher, what were your thoughts as you saw the rapid developments and Sheikh Hasina's ouster? What does it mean?
This was on the cards, though I am surprised with the rapidity of the developments.
Sheikh Hasina was on a slippery slope after the recent elections [January 2024. She won a consecutive fourth term]. Public resentment against her was extremely high because yet another time the people had actually been deprived of their electoral right.
She had managed to get away with it on previous occasions -- in fact, even in the 2018 election in Bangladesh, she was vulnerable because of the way she got elected amid allegations of wide-scale rigging.
She could weather the storm at that time because the economy was doing better, but this was the last straw. It needed a spark to light the fire and the student movement did that.
For a leader known as the iron lady who ruled for 15 years, what according to you was her miscalculation?
Her fundamental miscalculation was that she thought the Bangladesh army and regional powers are with her.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party was not strong enough to launch an agitation against her and she thought she would be able to handle any opposition to her re-election. (BNP leader Khaleda Zia has been in prison since 2018 and is set to be released.)
The miscalculation was not judging the sentiment on the street where people were seething with anger. There were several reasons for public anger -- the choking of democracy, no right to express contrary views, locking up opponents -- half the BNP leadership was in jail, the other half in exile...
Therefore, people were waiting for a chance to get back. That's the impression I had from the robust Indian community in Dhaka which is mostly in the garment business. They said that anti-Hasina and at times, anti-India sentiment was extremely high.
If you recall, after the elections there was an 'India Out' movement which did not succeed because Bangladesh is very dependent on us -- from tooth brushes to cars.
It did not succeed, but showed the desperation of the people.
The other miscalculation was her inability to accommodate her own allies like Jatia Party leader Anwar Hossain Manju who was defeated by his personal assistant.
If you look at the voting pattern in seats where an Awami League candidate was challenged by a dissident Awami League candidate, there was some voting, but where an Awami League candidate stood against parties that were allowed to contest, the voting was in single digits.
Farcical elections and authoritarian rule do not work in countries that have tasted democracy. Therefore, this was certainly in the making.
How will this raging turmoil on our eastern border impact India?
In the interim, India will be confronted with anti-India feeling because she had India's support.
We will have to deal with it, but it will not be a permanent phenomenon. There is substantial goodwill towards India which will stand us in good stead.
I don't know what kind of government will be formed and whether there will be free and fair elections, but there is fair amount of understanding among Bangladeshi leaders that they need good relations with India.
So in the interim there will be some setback, but not permanently.
What is Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League's future?
She is 76 and there is not much of a political future for her; the concern is the future of the Awami League.
The last time this happened in Bangladesh was in 1975 when Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and the whole family was assassinated. This was followed by the doing away of democracy and Sheikh Hasina only returned in 1980.
Time will tell what the future holds for the Awami League. It has great support in Bangladesh in each and every village, but at the moment it is tarred by the recent rule of Sheikh Hasina.
In time it will recover, but the legacy of Sheikh Hasina who provided great economic growth is tarred -- and also of Sheikh Mujib who is the father of Bangladesh and the embodiment of the liberation movement.
These have been damaged extensively.
There are allegations that the Pakistan mission in Dhaka was active in fomenting trouble. Do you think the quota agitation was sufficient reason for the enormous conflagration?
The quota issue was not sufficient reason for this mass upsurge. The situation was grave and needed a spark. Once the students took to the streets, people from all walks of life joined the movement. I think it was a spontaneous mass upsurge.
The powers who hope to gain from this will intervene and I am sure the Pakistanis will not have missed the opportunity. Also other political and Islamic parties not favourable to India would have jumped on the bandwagon, but it is largely a mass upsurge.
People's fear of coming out on the streets was broken by the students. I don't think it is completely instigated by foreign powers. We have to admit that there was serious anti-government sentiment in Bangladesh and we will be deluding ourselves to think it was only manipulated by others.
Does this mean a return to military rule in Bangladesh?
Well, it has. The army chief has said he will be meeting the president to form an interim government. It remains to be seen who constitutes the interim government.
I don't think it will be an all-party government because then he will have to accommodate the Awami League which I doubt the people will accept as part of the government.
The BNP has said it will only contest elections if there is a caretaker government.
Once can't say how long will it take the army to restore order in Bangladesh. Common sense dictates that after having thrown Sheikh Hasina out, most people would want peace, law and order, and go home. We can only wait and watch.
What are your thoughts about General Waker-uz-Zaman, the army chief, who seems to be the man in charge now?
He was the senior-most army officer. He is also related to Sheikh Hasina.
The tendency in South Asia is that even if you are the most competent person, but if you happen to be related to the powers that be, people tend to suspect the worst about you.
I don't know what stature he has in the army. There were reports that young officers were upset about how the army had been used by Sheikh Hasina. I don't know how much they will accept his authority without question, but the first priority is to restore order.
How worried will the ministry of external affairs be about development in Bangladesh?
Disorder in the neighbourhood is not the best prospect that one wants. The concern would be that it should not be taken advantage of by those inimical to India.
The MEA has said that it is an internal matter and will hope that order is restored.
It was strongly believed that Sheikh Hasina was headed to London?
It will be strange if she takes a house next to Tarique Rahman! [exiled acting chairman of the BNP and opposition leader Khaleda Zia's son.]
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
