'Putin will not be bound by any kind of deal he would sign with the US.'
"The Oval Office brouhaha signaled to Putin that it makes sense to continue the war, at the cost of a thousand soldiers that the Russian army loses every day, in the hope that Trump delivers Ukraine to Putin on a plate," Konstantin Sonin tells Rediff.com's Nikhil Lakshman in an e-mail interview.
Sonin, who was born in Moscow and educated in Moscow and at Harvard, is the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy.
After Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Professor Sonin predicted that it would be 'the end of Russia as we know it.'
For his candour on the Ukraine war, he was sentenced in absentia in February 2024 to eight-and-a-half years in prison.
He remains on Russia's Federal Wanted list and an arrest warrant was issued for him in Moscow last year. Putin, it seems, is incensed by Professor Sonin's indictment of the Russian miltary's actions in Bucha and Mariupol.
Were you startled by how President Zelenskyy's meeting in the Oval Office went?
Do you believe President Trump and Vice President Vance had decided that they would force Mr Zelenskyy to play along with their game plan for Ukraine and Russia, and hence the aggression from the word go?
There was an element of surprise as President Trump seemed to dramatically reverse the course that the USA has followed since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022.
His replies seem to suggest that it's Ukrainians and their President Zelenskyy are an obstacle to a cease-fire and a prospective peace deal, while, of course, it's Putin who is not willing to stop the war.
Whatever pressure could be applied by Trump and the US to Zelenskyy, this cannot bring peace as Zelenskyy is not an obstacle, Putin is.
The scene of pressuring Zelenskyy was both cruel and senseless. Not surprisingly, President Trump, in his Tuesday address to Congress, seemed to downplay last week's failure.
Diplomats feel Zelenskyy played his cards wrong in front of the cameras by challenging Trump. Do you agree?
Did he have a choice considering that Trump and Vance were forcing him to take a deal that would weaken Ukraine and give the US and Russia the spoils of war?
No, I don't. As much the opinion of President Trump, American press corps, and TV viewers worldwide is important for President Zelenskyy, he has constituencies that are far more important to him. He cannot make public concessions that are not supported by the majority of Ukrainians and the high command of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Peace on Putin's conditions, with Ukraine disarming and without strong security guarantees from the West is unacceptable to Ukrainians. No president of Ukraine, Zelenskyy or an alternative president, would agree to peace without security guarantees because such a peace will be short-lived.
When Putin re-groups and re-arms, the Russian army will attack again.
Is the Trump plan for ending the war in Ukraine by striking a deal with Russia dead in the water? Or does the US still hope to revive it by refusing to arm Ukraine?
Unfortunately, President Trump has relatively little leverage against Putin. The Oval Office brouhaha just signaled to Putin that it makes sense to continue the war, at the cost of a thousand soldiers that the Russian army loses every day, in the hope that Trump delivers Ukraine to Putin on a plate.
Zelenskyy has issued some conciliatory tweets. Will that help in assuaging Trump's ego or will nothing but a minerals deal satisfy this administration?
Flattering Trump's ego has seemingly helped a lot of visitors to establish rapport with President Trump. So, Zelenskyy's conciliatory tweets will not hurt. They will not do him much good either.
As a Russian, how do you explain this administration's urge to forge a new beginning with Russia?
At a time when Trump has set about antagonising allies and neighbours, why is there this almost aggressive affection for Vladimir Putin and Russia?
Is there a geopolitical reason -- the expectation that closer US-Russia ties will break the Putin-Xi bond -- or are there commercial reasons?
As many experts, I am baffled with the Trump administration's belief that Russia can be a reliable partner for the US.
Putin and Putin's elite hate America as much, if not more, than they hate Ukraine. Geopolitically, Putin does not consider the US to be an ally or partner. He will not be bound by any kind of deal he would sign with the US. Not clear why President Trump has so much faith in Putin.
How would you explain this administration's willingness to overlook how Putin has undermined democracy in Russia, almost a mirror image of the Stalinist years in the USSR?
Trump's administration has very little faith in abstract democracy. Unlike the previous administration, they do not think that America should support democratic countries around the world. It does not matter what Putin did to Russian democracy -- what matters is his image of a strong leader.
And the Republican party of that Cold War Warrior Ronald Reagan almost madly in love with Putin's Russia: How would you explain this almost bizarre phenomenon? What is it in Putin's Russia that enamours the Right in America?
Back 100 years ago, Western left was fascinated by the Soviet Union. From afar, it looked like a place, where freedom, equality, and human rights flourish. Of course, they did not in the actual USSR.
Now, for some on the American right, Putin's Russia is a paradise of Christianity, individual freedom, and family values. In reality, Putin's Russia is neither, but they are still fascinated.
As someone sentenced in absentia to eight-and-a-half years in prison for opposing the Ukraine war, how would you assess Putin's hold over your mother country?
Is it as much a vice grip as before, for there were expectations that the military reverses in Ukraine would weaken him?
Long ago, in his early years in power, Putin was genuinely popular. By the time his popularity was lost, he was able to dismantle or weaken democratic institutions to such a degree that nobody was able to challenge, legally, his power.
His henchmen pursued and ultimately killed two major leaders of the Russian Opposition. Boris Nemtsov, a popular local governor turned reformist deputy prime minister, was gunned down 150 metres from the Kremlin in 2015. Putin blocked attempts of any serious investigation of who ordered the killing.
In 2024, Alexey Navalny, a popular anti-corruption crusader and the leader of the Russian Opposition, was killed in jail on Putin's orders.
Has Trump thrown Putin a lifeline by his Riyadh overture and ensured that he will continue to rule Russia till the end of this decade at least?
The Trump administration's outreach to Russia emboldened Putin, but I am not sure it significantly changed the dynamics. Putin will continue the war until Ukraine is conquered or until the Russian State collapses as it did in 1917 and in 1991.
Putin's inability to change the course, his desire to continue the war at any cost, might shorten his tenure in power.
And the war in Ukraine -- do you see Russia unleashing a fresh offensive now that American arms may not be coming Kyiv's way?
What would it take for the war to end?Will Russia be satisfied with the eastern Ukrainian territories it has under its control, Trump's unilateral assertion that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO?
I am not a military analyst, but all military analysts talk about the Russian army exhaustion and weapon shortage. I do not think it's capable of a major new offensive right now.
I do not believe that the war will end if Putin is still in power. He will continue to bomb Ukrainian cities until he is out of missiles, and send troops to the meat grinder until he is out of reserves.
And what of NATO and Europe, now that America appears willing to break with its allies and join ranks with Russia?
Will we see new geopolitical formations in Europe before Trump's term ends?
Will America encourage far Right entities like AfD so that Europe swings to the Right in sync with Trumpian objectives?
Is Europe currently on the same page on Trump, Putin and Russia? Can this unity last?
I am optimistic about European unity in support of Ukraine. Poland, Baltic countries, Sweden, Finland will support Ukraine no matter what because they know too well that if Ukraine falls, they are next.
The UK and France are set to support Ukraine, including boots on the ground. Germany massively increases its defence spending.
In the days following Trump's turnaround on Ukraine, they signaled, very strongly, that they will continue to support Ukraine.
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