'Neither are Baloch insurgents capable of breaking up Pakistan nor has Pakistan learned any lessons from the 1971 debacle that led to the country's dismemberment.'
"If Pakistan truly believes that India is orchestrating violence inside its borders, why isn't it effectively raising the issue on international platforms? And if it is, why does the world remain unconvinced by Pakistan's claims of Indian involvement in Balochistan?" asks Baloch journalist-political analyst Malik Siraj Akbar who lives in exile in the United States.
Akbar was granted asylum in 2012 after facing threats from the Pakistan army for exposing suppression of the Baloch nationalist movement and human rights violation.
He is the only male Pakistani to be awarded a scholarship to pursue journalism at the Asian College of Journalism in Chennai. He also holds a master's degree in public administration from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government in Boston.
In a detailed interview with Rediff.com's Archana Masih, Malik Siraj Akbar discusses the recent attack on a train by the Balochistan Liberation Army, its evolution into a large scale insurgent force and Pakistan's time tested strategy of scapegoating India after every terror attack.
What is your opinion and assessment of the attack on the Jaffar Express and the subsequent bomb attack on security forces in Noshki province? How different are these attacks from previous BLA actions?
These attacks clearly indicate that the BLA has evolved from a small armed group into a large-scale insurgent force with substantial resources, sophisticated weaponry, and a credible intelligence network.
This should be concerning for the Pakistani military, as it reveals that the BLA now possesses accurate intelligence on troop movements.
It is possible that the military intentionally transported its personnel on passenger trains to shield them under the cover of civilians, assuming that this would be safer than using military vehicles, which are more obvious targets.
While this strategy may have been effective in the past, the situation has dramatically changed. The BLA's enhanced intelligence capabilities, increased resources, and better-trained personnel have made such tactics far less effective.
It's possible that the BLA has penetrated the ranks of the military and has some, if not many, informers from within the military that provide it with critical information such as the details of troop movements.
These two attacks also demonstrate the expanding scope and efficiency of the BLA's operations. It is no longer a small group that carries out an attack and then goes underground for days to regroup.
Instead, the BLA now has the capacity to launch consecutive, offensive strikes against the Pakistani military within short intervals -- a clear sign of its growing operational strength.
The BLA has attacked the Jaffar Express several times in the past, but never hijacked the entire train. What do you think was the intent behind such an action? Did it bring international focus to their independence moment?
The recent train hijacking marked a significant shift in the BLA's tactics. It was not only the first time they hijacked a passenger train, but also the first instance where they issued demands beyond their usual one-point agenda of Balochistan's independence.
This time, they called for the release of Baloch prisoners and missing persons.
It appears they aimed to prolong the standoff to pressure the Pakistani government into conceding to their demands.
However, the operation ultimately didn't go as the BLA had planned. They were unable to secure the release of any Baloch prisoners and instead suffered heavy casualties. Clearly, something went wrong in the execution of their plan, turning the entire episode into a misadventure.
If their goal was to gain international support, the hijacking backfired. It drew widespread condemnation from major world powers, including the United States, China, and Russia.
Rather than attracting sympathy, it severely damaged the BLA's global image, portraying their struggle in a negative light.
The incident reinforced the perception of the BLA as a dangerous armed group that has increasingly targeted unarmed civilians -- crossing a red line for any insurgent group.
The BLA must recognise that attacking civilians only invites further global condemnation. The Baloch movement, already devoid of formal support from any country, cannot afford such missteps.
Even setting aside the armed struggle, the Baloch lack official backing on the global stage. Acts of senseless violence against civilians will only weaken their cause and inflict lasting damage on their struggle for legitimate rights.
Currently, the Baloch movement receives limited international support, primarily from civil society and human rights organisations. However, attacks on civilian passengers put even these supporters in an awkward position, making it harder for them to advocate for the Baloch cause.
For someone who has studied and observed the situation in Balochistan closely, how do you foresee the future of Balochistan? Do you think that a time will come when the separatist dream of cessation from Pakistan will ever come true?
Or do you think Pakistan has learnt its lesson from the break-up of East Pakistan 54 years ago and will do all that it takes to suppress the movement?
The answer to both of your questions is no. Neither are the Baloch insurgents capable of breaking up Pakistan nor has Pakistan learned any lessons from the 1971 debacle that led to the country's dismemberment and Bangladesh's independence.
The current Baloch nationalist movement has undoubtedly destabilised Pakistan beyond imagination. For a non-State actor to slip out of the State's control is alarming in itself.
Yet, despite being deeply engaged in the insurgency, the separatists have failed to present a clear roadmap or manifesto outlining what an independent Balochistan would look like or how it would differ from Pakistan.
The BLA's violence against civilians has further undermined the very purpose of the Baloch existence and resistance.
What began as a struggle against the injustices of the Pakistani State has now seen the BLA committing similar crimes within the province. If they continue to target civilians, they risk losing the mass support they have thus far enjoyed.
The group has benefitted from the assumption that attacks on civilians might have been unintentional or isolated incidents. However, if such violence becomes a consistent policy, the BLA will inevitably lose credibility and support--both locally and on the national and international stage.
I anticipate significant bloodshed and violence from both sides in the coming weeks and months. Both the BLA and the Pakistani forces are fuelled by rage and a desire for revenge following the recent train hijacking.
There is mounting pressure on the Pakistani military and paramilitary forces to take decisive action against the insurgents. However, acting hastily without a well-defined strategy carries the risk of harming innocent civilians rather than effectively targeting the insurgents.
If the government were truly capable of containing the BLA, it would have prevented the Jaffar Express attack in the first place, particularly with support from its intelligence agencies.
This is a highly delicate situation. The BLA will undoubtedly exploit any misstep by the military, particularly if it results in civilian casualties.
At this point, the Pakistani military needs genuine allies in Balochistan, not more enemies. These allies must be individuals who genuinely perceive the government as making meaningful efforts to address the province's longstanding grievances, rather than simply cracking down blindly on innocent civilians.
Why don't governments in Pakistan want to discuss a resolution with Baloch nationalists?
Unlike India, Pakistan has a weak political system where real power lies with the military. This creates two major issues.
First, the military has long been accused of committing human rights abuses in Balochistan, though it consistently denies any wrongdoing.
However, solving the conflict requires addressing the mistakes of the past -- something the military is unwilling to do. It refuses to acknowledge its crimes in Balochistan, let alone commit to ending military operations or halting human rights abuses such as enforced disappearances.
The military also shows no willingness to release missing persons, pledge to abandon such practices, or hold officials accountable for their extraconstitutional actions.
Second, there is little to no support from Pakistan's mainstream political parties -- such as the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League -- for meaningful negotiations with the Baloch.
These parties largely align with the military's hardline stance on Balochistan, further reducing the chances of political intervention or pressure for dialogue.
The absence of political will and external pressure has created a deadlock, where neither side is engaging in meaningful negotiations.
Without political backing or accountability, the military continues its heavy-handed policies, making a peaceful resolution increasingly unlikely.
Pakistan has yet again alleged India's role in the train attack and for supporting the BLA without any evidence. What does Pakistan hope to achieve by such baseless allegations?
No matter how baseless Pakistan's allegations against India may be, they are unfortunately widely accepted by the Pakistani public and media.
This narrative provides the government with a convenient distraction from critical questions -- such as why there was such a massive intelligence failure in the first place.
If India were truly involved, why isn't the government taking direct action? After all, it is the responsibility of the Pakistani military to counter foreign interference.
Moreover, if Pakistan truly believes that India is orchestrating violence inside its borders, why isn't it effectively raising the issue on international platforms? And if it is, why does the world remain unconvinced by Pakistan's claims of Indian involvement in Balochistan?
Blaming India has become the go-to excuse for Pakistan's ruling elite and military -- a time-tested strategy that never seems to fail them.
Since this scapegoating continues to work, they resort to it after every major terrorist attack. However, the Pakistani government's consistent failure to provide credible evidence of India's involvement casts serious doubt on these claims.
There's no denying that the Baloch insurgents have demonstrated remarkable combat capabilities and are clearly receiving substantial external support. However, there is no definitive proof that this backing comes exclusively from India.
The Pakistani government, with its superior resources and intelligence apparatus, has the responsibility to provide credible evidence identifying who is funding the Baloch insurgency.
The insurgency has reached an extraordinary level of resourcefulness -- not only in its military operations, but also in its social media strategy and propaganda warfare.
In many ways, the BLA now enjoys a clear advantage over the Pakistani State when it comes to media outreach, regularly issuing press releases and providing timely updates.
While it is evident that the insurgents are receiving some form of external support, there is still no concrete proof that India is behind it.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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