The Pudukottai verdict is a sobering message for Karunanidhi

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The demoralised AIADMK cadres feel re-energised, the ruling DMK feels subdued in victory, but it is the smaller parties like the Tamil Maanila Congress, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the CPI-M that sent out a message in last week's Pudukottai by-election in Tamil Nadu.

The ruling DMK retained the assembly seat by a fourth of its victory margin in last year's election, sending out a clear signal about the people's decision to vote on the incumbent-government's performance than the misdeeds of its predecessor.

The lack of voter-interest in the by-poll coming soon after the general election and local bodies poll, and the conclusion that the DMK would easily retain its seat, may be some of the reasons for the party's low victory margin.

DMK cadres, however, blame the TMC for the party's "poor showing.'' They feel TMC cadres settled scores with the DMK for the manner in which the ruling party in Tamil Nadu virtually ignored its ally in distributing seats for the the local bodies poll.

What upped the stakes for the DMK, thus making its victory margin look small, was the party's determination to keep AIADMK supremo and former chief minister Jayalalitha Jayaram at the centre of the electoral battle in Pudukottai.

DMK supremo and Chief Minister M Karunanidhi publicly declared that the by-poll was a referendum on his government's actions against Jayalalitha and her aides for their alleged corruption. A bigger margin than the 43,000 votes scored by A Periannan, whose death had caused the by-election, would be proof thereof, Karunanidhi had contended.

That being the case, the much-reduced victory margin of 12,024 votes recorded by DMK nominee P Mari Ayya has helped the AIADMK to argue that the the electorate has disapproved of the government's actions against Jayalalitha.

As is only to be expected, AIADMK leaders have now started referring to Jayalalitha's hospitalisation during the campaign, but for which, they claim, the party could have won the seat. Not many are willing to accept the role played by the party's deputy general secretary and former minister S Thirunavukkarasu, who belongs to the district.

Thirunavukkarasu, who has changed his political loyalties several times in recent years, has retained the neighbouring Arantagi seat, sailing against the prevailing political wind in the last three elections.

No one is willing to give Thirunavukkarasu and his band of loyal supporters their due. Nor is he interested in claiming credit. As someone who burnt his fingers by claiming credit for a by-election victory soon after the electoral debacle in 1989 -- this cost him his membership of the AIADMK -- he is downplaying his role this time.

Anyway, his strategy to take over the AIADMK leadership -- should Jayalalitha throw in the towel -- seems stymied for the present. The party's Pudukottai performance appears to have revived Jayalalitha's political image as nothing else has in recent months.

More than anyone else, it is the TMC, MDMK and the CPI-M that have made their positions crucial to the electoral performance of the two Dravidian majors. The MDMK won 13,500 votes in Puddukottai. Given its one-point, anti-Karunanidhi poll plank, the MDMK feels its need for a major partner, just as the AIADMK is sure to look for a minor partner to work with.

It was only to prove this point that the MDMK reportedly contested the Pudukottai polls on its own, despite the efforts of Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy to forge an anti-DMK alliance under the AIADMK.

By scoring 5,100 votes on its own after parting company with the MDMK post-1996 poll, the CPI-M has proved its utility for the DMK, whose company it deserted only a couple of years back.

But it is the TMC that got it right, this time. While it has become indispensable for the DMK as an electoral ally -- particularly after the formation of the MDMK -- the party leadership now seems convinced that it can chart out its own course sooner than later.

The message from Pudukottai is clear. If the electorate across the state cast its lot against the Jayalalitha dispensation in the general election, they seem tired of the DMK government's Jaya-baiting. That being the case, the TMC leadership feels the people are now ready to vote out both highhanded rulers and non-performing governments, if an alternative could be found. The party would like to project itself as the alternative, and might eventually part company with the DMK to launch its own course.