A peace keeping role for India is a distinct possibility.
The Indian military has both the numbers and experience to carry out this job, observes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
President Trump 2.0 is a man in a hurry. Besides a flurry of domestic initiatives on immigration and downsizing government, he has also been hyper active on the international scene.
A major step to end the Ukraine war will be taken when the Americans and Russians meet in Saudi Arabia. The Europeans are alarmed at being excluded from the talks (so is Ukraine) and scheduled an emergency meeting on Monday, February 17.
US Secretary of Defence Peter Hegseth, while addressing NATO members on February 13, set the cat amongst the pigeons when he declared that NATO membership for Ukraine was not supported by the US.
With this one statement the US won over Russia since that was the raison d'etre for the Russian invasion.
There is a reason to believe that President Trump is preparing the ground for America's 'Shanghai Moment' with the Russians. This refers to President Richard M Nixon's February 1972 visit to China that ended the nearly 30-year-old enmity between the two nations.
Except at that time the US exploited Chinese long term fears about the Soviet Union's threat while this time round the US is exploiting the long term Russian unease about Chinese claim and threat to Siberia and Russia's Far Eastern territories.
Geography, history and demography, all point in this direction.
Where does India fit into this American design of a new re-ordering of the world balance?
India is the only country that has friendly relations with both the US and Russia.
On the Ukraine conflict, India has taken a very balanced position and is welcome in both Moscow and Kyiv.
Readers need to be reminded about an extraordinary event that happened a few months ago.
When India bought a ship from the Russians, it was Ukraine that supplied the engine for it, despite both countries being at war with each other.
A peace keeping role for India is a distinct possibility. The Indian military has both the numbers and experience to carry out this job.
Much of these negotiations are taking place behind closed doors.
Many of us were surprised by the prime minister's US visit at short notice. There seemed no particular issue or urgent business at hand.
The outcome of the visit also showed no particular major gain for either country except for the usual pious announcements and offers of arms to India (that India had neither sought nor accepted).
It appears that the real purpose of Prime Minister Narendra D Modi's visit was to sound India on a possible peace keeping role in Ukraine as well as in the Middle East.
As if to reinforce this speculation, the emir of Qatar is visiting India and was received at the airport by the PM, breaking protocol.
It is well known that Qatar has been playing a major role in the peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
It cannot be a mere coincidence that just when the peace negotiations are at a delicate stage, he chose to visit India.
Again, like in the case of Russia/Ukraine so also in the Middle East, India has good relations with both sides and is ideally suited to be a peacekeeper.
The one country that would be carefully watching the developments is China.
I had occasion to study President John F Kennedy's archives in 2001. The Americans have been formulating a response to the potential rise of China since the 1960s.
The basic American approach to China recommended was that the US should engage with China economically while contain it militarily.
It was under Ronald Reagan that this was briefly violated and the US helped create military capability in China since the US at that time had a single point agenda of defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
As the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, the US was quick to retract its steps but by that time the damage was done.
In the basic American strategy of the military containment of China, the Indian role is crucial.
After the clashes of 2020 between India and China, India showed resolve and stood its ground militarily.
This convinced America that whatever its policies, India's existence as a powerful country is an automatic check on China.
It is this that has given India the flexibility to follow its own interests vis a vis Russia and Iran and yet remain in America's good books.
The US has also taken a major step to assure India that it has given up its objective of balkanization of India, a long term Anglo-American project. This is signalled by the American decision to hand over one of the 26/11 Mumbai attack accused to India.
By itself it is not a major concession but it sends a powerful signal to other anti-India elements like the Khalistanis in the West that they may no longer get a free pass to work against India.
Countries like the UK and even Canada may follow the US lead in this respect.
The end of the Ukraine war on terms favourable to the Russians may well signal a major realignment of forces in Europe.
America's embrace of Russia, if it fructifies, will mean a major realignment of forces and the American pivot to Asia Pacific a reality.
Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) is a military historian whose earlier columns can be read here.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
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