The stage may be set for a recalibrated US-Iran relationship, suggests Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
France's distinguished former career diplomat Sylvie Bermann, wrote an op-ed recently in the leading financial paper Les Echos that a new chapter of 'transactional geopolitics' has begun with Donald Trump.
Extremely unlikely events can be expected, metaphorically called 'black swans'. The so-called 'black swan theory' characterises events that come as a surprise, have a major effect, but can be rationalised only after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
One may say, on February 4 morning, a black swan appeared in the White House, even as President Donald Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) (external link) restoring 'maximum pressure' on Iran, denying that country 'all paths to a nuclear weapon' and outlining a tough policy posture toward Tehran.
Later in the day, a White House Fact Sheet (external link) detailed that NSPM establishes the following truism:
- 'Iran should be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles';
- 'Iran's terrorist network should be neutralised'; and,
- 'Iran's aggressive development of missiles, as well as other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities, should be countered.'
The black swan's appearance was intriguing. On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's arrival in DC, the Jerusalem Post had written:
'The Trump administration is in the process of formulating its Iran policy, and Netanyahu's visit at this early stage in the president's second term affords him a golden opportunity to give his input. And Iran remains Israel's number one threat and problem...
'While his (Trump's) administration still seeks to contain Iran's regional influence and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon, there have been early signs of shifts in tone and priorities.
'These shifts may reflect internal divisions within the administration between Iran hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and isolationists like Vice President J D Vance, who said in October: 'Our interest very much is in not going to war with Iran... this is where smart diplomacy really matters'.'
At any rate, Trump decided to sign the NSPM without waiting for Netanyahu's 'input'. Equally, Marco Rubio was conspicuous by his absence in Trump's team for the talks with Netanyahu. And Vice-President Vance not only assisted Trump at the talks but the president made it a point to ostentatiously convey his appreciation by hailing him in public view, in the presence of Netanyahu and his entourage, which was striking.
And the mother of all surprises was that the NSPM document as such studiously avoided any threat of war against Iran.
Trump avoids anti-Iran rhetoric lately, which used to be a running feature of his first term as president.
Although a mercurial personality, Trump is not tweaking, either, the complex web of unwritten ground rules and norms of conduct that kept the four decades-old US-Iran standoff from turning into military confrontation (something which, of course, neither side wants).
Meanwhile, all indications are that Trump senses that the Iran question has transformed as Tehran's deterrent capability began surging in recent years, and is no longer a 'stand-alone' challenge for the US, as the external environment too has changed phenomenally and works in Tehran's favour since the Ukraine war began.
For instance, Russia and Iran are in a quasi-alliance today. That said, Russia is also a stakeholder in nuclear non-proliferation and also has a congruence of interests with the US that Iran abides by the NPT.
Again, the China-brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement has dramatically changed the alignments in the region both bilaterally as well as regionally. Simply put, containment of Iran has become an obsolete strategy.
Even otherwise, a sense of proportions is always necessary to assess the US-Iran tensions. Therefore, Trump's remarks after signing the executive order on NSPM need to be properly understood.
Suffice to say, It was a carefully choreographed performance by Trump, caught on camera, and one of those rarest of rare occasions, speaking with an eye on the prompter -- rather unusual for Trump who is famous for his stream of consciousness.
Trump spoke calmly in a measured tone -- even sombre tone. He noted stoically, 'This is what everybody told me to sign and I signed. It is very tough on Iran. The Iran situation -- hopefully, we don't have to do very much.
'We will see whether we can arrange to work out a deal with Iran and everybody can live together. Maybe it is possible, maybe it is not possible.'
Trump continued: 'So, I am signing this and am unhappy to do it. But I really have not so much choice because we have to be strong and firm. And I hope that it does not have to be used in any great measure at all.
'We could have a Middle East and a world in total peace. Right now, we don't have that. I like to have peace all over the world but now you have the world blowing up.'
Trump repeated, 'I am signing this but, hopefully, it will be a document which will be important but hardly has to be used.'
When asked by a journalist what kind of a deal is envisaged with Iran, Trump replied, 'We will see. They (cannot) have a nuclear weapon. With me, it is simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. We don't want to be tough on Iran... This (deal) could have been done long ago.'
When asked about alleged Iranian plots to assassinate him, Trump reacted, 'They (Iranians) have not done that. That will be a terrible thing to do. Not because of me, but they will be obliterated... I have left instructions.
'If they do it, they will get obliterated. There won't be anything left. If anything like that happens (from any quarter), there will be total obliteration of that State -- not only Iran...'
Trump concluded, 'So, I am signing this. It is a very powerful document, but hopefully, I will not have to use it.'
In essence, Trump conveyed a nuanced message to Tehran before Netanyahu's arrival that he has an independent line of thinking regardless of what the hotheads in Tel Aviv might be saying. And that is to work for a deal through smart diplomacy -- the J D Vance line.
Trump understands that the Masoud Pezeshkian government also seeks dialogue and negotiations. Trump does not believe that Iran is on a course to develop nuclear weapons, no matter the decade-old propaganda by pro-Israel interest groups to malign Iran.
Tehran has rich experience in 'smart diplomacy'. Quite obviously, the NSPM document is for record, given the reality of a powerful pro-Israel lobby in the US which also happens to be a core constituency in the American political system, including within the Republican Party.
With his remarks, Trump endeavoured a soft landing for NSPM on the diplomatic arena.
Tehran will grasp Trump's nuanced message of 'transactional geopolitics'. Iranian officials have welcomed Trump's remark that he is willing to work out a deal.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a message on X (external link): 'In addition to being one of the committed parties to the NPT and other global non-proliferation treaties, Iran has already explicitly declared that 'Iran will not seek to produce or acquire nuclear weapons under any circumstances'.
Araghchi proposed: 'Obtaining practical guarantees that Iran will not attain nuclear weapons is not difficult, provided that, in return, concrete assurances are given to effectively end hostile actions against Iran -- including economic pressures and sanctions.'
Tehran has taken note that Trump did not rule out a meeting with Pezeshkian. When asked about Trump's remark, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters (external link) at a press conference in Tehran on Wednesday, 'Our international issues have been founded upon the principles of dignity, wisdom and expediency. All issues, specifically relations with other countries, are being pursued on the basis of these three principles.'
In effect, decoding the highly refined Persian idiom, Iran has responded positively to Trump's estimation that a deal is possible and signalled flexibility, moderation and pragmatism on its part.
The region too has been quick to sense the shift of tectonic plates. In an interview with Fox News, Trump's favourite channel, the Qatari foreign ministry promptly offered to play a mediatory role between Washington and Tehran.
Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff.com
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff.com
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