Yes, another terrorist attack and evidence that it originated in Pakistan -- or, conceivably, an incident in Pakistan that seemed to originate in India -- could tip the two countries into some kind of escalation. There is also the possibility that an intelligence mistake, or even another hoax, could lead one or the other country to move; it must also be remembered that in the earlier crisis there were examples of subordinate officers exceeding their authority and nearly triggering a larger crisis. We cite several such examples in Four Crises and a Peace Process.

I am reassured by the fact that the only people who really want escalation, and who would benefit from another India-Pakistan crisis or a war, are the radical Islamists who hate the governments now in power in Islamabad and New Delhi. All parties must resist the temptation to strike out, as only the radicals would benefit, but they must also think strategically as to how the present flammable stalemate can be transformed into a more normal relationship that would benefit both countries.

Short of war, what option does New Delhi have to get Islamabad to dismantle the terrorist structures within that country and hand over the named terrorists to India?

The situation now resembles, in many ways, the 1990 crisis, when there were weak governments in both India and Pakistan, and it was difficult for either side to back down. India's best strategy would be to get other countries to front for it. Pakistanis will not, and cannot, respond to 'Indian demands', just as India cannot and will not respond to Pakistani ones. There have to be intermediaries, but not just an American operation, and China is probably the most important country in this regard.

However, this will all mean nothing if Indians still have no serious vision about the kind of Pakistan they would like to see 20 years from now: a smouldering nuclear ruin, ten mini-States at war with each other, or a prosperous and peaceful trading power with which India can cooperate in stabilising the entire Indian Ocean region. This should be a matter of debate in India -- there is, for the first time, a genuine elected government, so how can it be strengthened against those in Pakistan who are the irreconcilables regarding India?

Image: Citizens at a protest rally in Mumbai after the 26/11 attacks. Photograph: Dominic Xavier

Also see: 'The Lashkar-e-Tayiba has gone rogue'

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