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Analysis: Obama wins youth, women in Iowa
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January 04, 2008 10:36 IST

"We are choosing hope over fear, we are choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America."

Thus, Senator Barak Obama said after emerging winner in the Democratic primaries in Iowa -- a speech that resonated with the 'Audacity of Hope' speech, made at the Democratic national convention in 2004 when Senator John Kerry was challenging incumbent George W Bush [Images] for the presidency, which first catapulted Obama onto the national stage.

What is even more interesting than Obama's early lead is that former Senator John Edwards, who in 2004 was on the underside of the Kerry ticket, has come through strongly, challenging pre-caucus favorite Hillary Clinton for second spot.

The surge by Edwards could perhaps be an even bigger handicap for Clinton than the Obama win, because here on in, the once putative favorite has to fight not one but two opponents, to reclaim lost ground.

Equally interesting is the polling data: though final figures are yet to come in, the indications are that there will be a record turnout in Iowa, indicating that the Democrats are enthused enough about the race to come out and pick the candidate they think is most likely to reclaim the White House.

Given that, it is significant that more voters appear to have preferred 'hope' and 'change,' as represented by Obama, than the 'experience' that has been the main plank of the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Over 50 per cent of Democratic caucus voters indicated in polling that change was what they were looking for, and a majority of those indicated that Obama best represented that change.

Equally significantly, the Obama candidacy appears to have captured the imagination of young voters -- preliminary data being reported by CNN and other sites indicate that 57 per cent of voters between the ages of 17-29 preferred Obama to Clinton.

Clinton, now clearly on the back foot, said she was a long way from giving up.

"I am so ready for the rest of this campaign and I am so ready to lead," the New York Senator told supporters as the results began going the way of her younger rival.

"I have done this work for 35 years, it is the work of my life time," Clinton is quoted as saying, adding, "I have been involved in making it possible for young people to have a better education and for people of all ages to have health care and that transforming work is what we desperately need in our country again."

The words were an indication, perhaps, that she will continue to use education and health care as her primary planks. Analysts indicate that this could in fact be her main handicap -- while it is true that the two issues rank high in the list of priorities for voters, those are by no means the only factors.

In fact, CNN quotes entrance polls as suggesting that even in Clinton's pet areas Obama has come across as the more acceptable choice. Thus, 34 per cent of voters who picked health care as their top issue preferred Obama.

Equally, 35 per cent believe the Iraq war is the topmost issue -- and on this, Obama comes across as the better option ahead of Clinton, who has struggled to explain the fact that she voted for the war.

Thirty six per cent voters have opted for economy as their primary concern, and again in this respect, Obama is ahead of Clinton in the popularity stakes.

Another eye opening aspect of the Iowa result relates to the question of race, which was expected to figure prominently.
While the final figures will present a clearer picture, preliminary analysis indicates that while the stereotypical angry urban black is still looked on with disfavor, Obama -- educated, articulate, and firmly of the successful middle class -- does not come across as being representative of that breed.

His race, thus, appears to have been less of an issue than was anticipated by experts, whereas Hillary Clinton's gender could, again in preliminary analysis, have gone against her.

Obama has won majority of the female vote, thus neutralizing Clinton's gender appeal, while retaining the male support he was expected to gather.

Clearly, even though the final figures could crystallize the pictures even further, preliminary indications are that Obama with his Iowa victory has taken pole position in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination; Clinton is doubly handicapped by her youthful rival and by the strong showing by Edwards; and Edwards, interestingly enough, can if he maintains his performance put himself in a position, yet again, emerge as a strong vice presidential candidate.



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