What do you think will eventually happen?
I think China is not in a hurry and India has not made up its mind yet on the issue. There was a negative development last year. Chinese ambassador Sun Yuxi gave an interview that created debate. I have not seen the full text, but I read that the question was not well-framed and the answer was not sophisticated. It created lot of new misgivings. But, I do not think the Chinese have an illusion that they will ever get a full Arunachal Pradesh.
A few small corrections can be made. Tawang issue is very special and I do not think India will agree to give it away. That is why talks will drag on. However, most countries can live with differences and at same time develop relationship in other areas.
India has acknowledged China's sovereignty over Tibet, but then there are other issues related to Tibet.
Indian support to Dalai Lama has its limits, of course. It is not all-out or carte-blanche. It is looking for the moment where Tibet is not an obstacle in development of Sino-India ties. That may happen in the post-Dalai Lama period. One successor of Dalai Lama will be chosen in India and one by China. It is difficult to see how it will work out. In a nutshell, Tibet will not be an obstacle in Sino-India ties.
China's number one concern is Taiwan. It is a major foreign policy and domestic issue. It is also an issue in US-China relations. China's relation with Japan is much more important than one thinks. Their trade relation is over $200 billion. Japan's economic future depends to a significant extent in relocating their industries in China. Many Japanese industries already moved in China to produce goods that are affordable for Japanese consumers. Even if India multiplies its trade with China it will never achieve level of China and Japan trade.
Can you imagine the two most ancient civilizations becoming allies?
Allies is a big word, partnership is possible.
What is the crux of the problem?
The two are very different political systems. China is no longer an absolute totalitarian dictatorship, but it is an authoritarian State, though. Here consensus is imposed, particularly, on foreign policy issues. But, now, public opinion plays a role in policy making. Therefore, regime does not have full freedom of action. There are internal pressures on Tibet and border issues that the Chinese government has to take into consideration.
On the Indian side too, political parties, media and public is involved in making settlement difficult. What both countries need is statesmanship from strong national leaders from both sides who can unify political forces to arrive at final solution. I think neither side needs to make big sacrifices. If India, Myanmar, Bangladesh and China set up multilateral economic development programmes, political issues will become secondary.
Also read: Why India must watch China's communist congress
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