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N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras
At one stage the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazagham combine was seen as all but having lost the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, even before it all commenced. The winning alliance brought together by rival All India Anna DMK chief Jayalalitha was seen as the cause.
Today, a month later and a month closer to the polls, the DMK front is sitting comparatively stable, if not strong, even as the AIADMK combine is rocked by problems pertaining to the Pattali Makkal Katchi's acceptance in the group and other seat-sharing hassles.
The new entrant to the DMK combine is the non-political Dalit Panthers India, which had contested the 1999 Lok Sabha polls as a partner in the Tamil Maanila Congress-led Third Front.
After waiting for the TMC to take an anti-PMK stand, given the traditional Dalit-Vanniar differences in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu, and adjoining Pondicherry, the DPI formally joined the DMK combine, only hours after the PMK and the AIADMK had announced their seat-sharing formula on Monday.
Today, the DMK combine is as compact as it can be, though the party leadership has not given up as yet on the TMC. Coming as it does after the induction of the Dalit-strong Puthiya Thamizagam in the southern districts, the Dalit Panthers' decision may have helped the DMK combine to project a pro-Dalit image.
This assumes importance in the light of the AIADMK being seen as a party of the anti-Dalit Thevar community in the southern districts, and the equally anti-Dalit Vanniars in the north.
That way, this may be the first time that the DMK is coming to be seen as a pro-Dalit party since the late M G Ramachandran floated the breakaway AIADMK in the early seventies.
With a 20-per cent Dalit vote-bank spread across the state in each constituency, any consolidation of Dalit votes against the militant Thevar-Vanniar combination, could help tilt the scales in favour of the DMK combine, given the traditional vote-banks of the participant-parties in the alliance.
A lot will, however, depend on the attitude of the other communities, particularly the upper castes and the other intermediary castes -- whether they side with the Dalits or against them.
For all the publicised consolidation, the DMK combine has still not lost hopes on the TMC. DMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi said as much while welcoming Dalit Panthers leader R Thirumavalavan into the fold on Monday evening.
The DMK is keen on the TMC joining the front, but would rather be content with the latter forming a Third Front without joining the AIADMK alliance.
"Only the TMC said its doors are shut on the DMK," Karunanidhi said, hinting at hopes of the TMC joining the DMK combine even at this late hour, now that the party's continuance in the AIADMK alliance is seen as becoming increasingly untenable.
Using Thirumavalavan's earlier demand for a DMK-led combine in which the communal BJP did not have a big say, Karunanidhi hinted at a less dominating BJP in the state NDA, thus sending out signals not only to the TMC, but also to the Congress. To that extent, even the BJP and MDMK allies of the DMK have expressed their willingness to wait for some time before taking up seat-sharing talks with any seriousness. Between them, the MDMK in particular has declared "Jayalalitha's defeat as our only goal this time."
For his part, Karunanidhi has also reiterated his intention not to become chief minister after the polls. "The DMK is not a religious mutt for the incumbent to nominate his heir, but a democratic organisation, where elections decide the leadership question," he said.
However, it is as much a temptation being offered to the TMC, as it is a hope offered to the younger generation in the DMK, which hopes for Karunanidhi's son and Madras Mayor M K Stalin to succeed him.
However, Karunanidhi's declaration in Tiruchi last week of the DMK nominating new faces in the assembly polls has not gone down well with the younger generation.
Perturbed by reports of voter-antipathy towards incumbent party MLAs, including some senior ministers, the DMK leadership is said to be seriously considering new aspirants.
This has upset the second-line, though there are those at the organisational-level who have welcomed the move, hoping that this would give a chance for new faces to contest and win elections, independent of the influences that may have marred the party's fair image over the past five years in office.
ALSO SEE: PMK in the middle of TN muddle No compromise on PMK in Pondy, says Cong
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