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Opposition gets set to repeat UF experiment

George Iype in New Delhi

Now that her plan to form a minority government has been derailed, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has entered into negotiations with other Opposition parties to form a hotchpotch coalition or prop up a Third Front-led government at the Centre.

Six days after the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was voted out of power, Sonia went to President K R Narayanan with an incomplete support list of just 233 members of Parliament to tell him that the Congress on its own could not form a government.

Though two days ago Gandhi had promised Narayanan that she would produce 272 MPs backing her candidature as prime minister, Friday's list was short of 39 MPs as key Opposition partners the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Revolutionary Socialist Party and All-India Forward Bloc torpedoed her wish list.

The Congress president's failure to bring together all the Opposition parties has rejuvenated the Bharatiya Janata Party, which now contends that the only coalition government viable in the present circumstances is the outgoing regime headed by Vajpayee.

But the President, instead of entertaining the BJP's demand for reinstatement of the Vajpayee government, gave a second and final chance to the Congress and the rest of the Opposition to submit to him any stable coalition.

To ensure that the BJP does not get a second chance, Gandhi requested for some more time to complete consultations with all the secular Opposition parties. The President has consented to her demand, but urged her to prepare a plan of action and present it to him as early as possible.

As Gandhi begun hectic negotiations with the disparate Opposition groups that are riven by ideological differences and ego clashes, Congress politicians admitted that any fresh plan continues to be equally messy and thorny.

"That the Congress forms a minority government was the most viable and effective option. I am not now hopeful that a stable government can emerge," senior Congress Working Committee member Rajesh Pilot told Rediff On The NeT.

But, Pilot said, since the Opposition parties unanimously agree that there is no question of giving a fresh chance to the BJP-led coalition, "we are trying to search for the best option".

Thus, after first spurning the idea of a united coalition government or a Third Front-led coalition, Sonia Gandhi and other senior Congress politicians came down from their pedestal and began discussing the same two options with the other Opposition parties.

The first option under debate is a coalition government led by the Congress in which the Samajwadi Party, All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Bahujan Samaj Party and smaller partners will be given key portfolios.

But the Congress is wary of the idea because Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav and some Left leaders insist that Sonia Gandhi should not head such a coalition. Neither Gandhi nor most other Congress politicians are ready to concede such a demand.

Therefore, the most acceptable option that is emerging is a Third Front government supported by the Congress from outside. Gandhi, though unwillingly, has agreed to the proposal, which, if chalked out tomorrow, could look like the United Front governments of 1996 and 1997.

But most Congress politicians fear that backing a Third Front government would be disastrous for the party as it will not be possible to continue supporting such an arrangement for long. "And pulling down a Third Front government will wreck the Congress's chances in a mid-term poll as it did in 1998," a Congressman said.

A Third Front coalition being put together to present before the President will have as its constituents the Left Front, the Samajwadi Party, the BSP, the Tamil Maanila Congress, the National Conference, and, possibly, the Telugu Desam Party.

While the shape of the Third Front is set to emerge tomorrow, a fresh fight between the Opposition parties is about to begin as there are at least five prime ministerial contenders for such an arrangement. They are: former prime ministers H D Deve Gowda, I K Gujral, and Chandra Shekhar, former defence minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Dr Subramanian Swamy.

Sources said if Gandhi agrees to extend support to a Third Front government from outside, she will demand that the prime ministerial candidate be a man of her choice. Sensing the opportunity that lies ahead, both Deve Gowda and Chandra Shekhar called on the Congress president today.

Analysts believe Gandhi's failure to form a new minority government and the possibility of a Third Front regime cropping up will only trigger a bitter struggle for political space between the motley crowd of regional parties and independents.

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