COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ELECTIONS
ARCHIVES

Congress is adamant on forming minority government

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

The Congress remains adamant. As far as it is concerned, either a Congress government with outside support from the allies will rule the country, or there will be a mid-term election.

The party high command has turned down the suggestions for a Third Front government or a coalition. It is now hoping the reluctant parties will come around rather than face the electorate.

The Congress flatly rejected the suggestion that it should support a Third Front government from outside. "In 1996 and 1997, the Congress supported the United Front from outside. Now it is their turn to do the needful," said Congress Working Committee member Rajesh Pilot.

The other Opposition parties had floated the name of West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu of the Communist Party of India-Marxist as a consensual candidate for the prime minister's post. But the suggestion was turned down by the CPI-M itself, for an interesting reason.

CPI-M general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet said the appointment of a leftist leader would hurt market sentiments at a time when the economy is reeling. "At this juncture, Basu as PM will send the Sensex nose-diving!" the veteran Communist said.

A Congress politician who did not want to be named agreed. "If the Congress agrees to back Basu as PM, industrialists will be most upset. No industrialist will support us at election time when we seek funds. It will be suicidal for us."

So the Congress believes the only way out is a Congress government headed by Sonia Gandhi and sustained by outside support from all the others. "No one wants an election right now, not even Mulayam Singh Yadav," said a Congress official, "and if it is not us, there is no option but to go for an election."

Yadav, leader of the Samajwadi Party, which has 20 members in the Lok Sabha, is still refusing to back a Congress government.

Congress chief whip in Parliament P J Kurien said, "We never forced the vote of confidence. The situation came about after the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam pulled out from the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance. The fall was a result of their inner contradictions and we, as the leading opposition party, had no choice but to oppose the confidence vote. We never said we were desperate to form a government in coalition with the others."

Meanwhile, the Congress is inching towards the 272 mark. Today, it won the support of most of the other Opposition parties, including the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the AIADMK. The RJD and the Samajwadi Party, which together have 37 members in the Lok Sabha, have a joint front called the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha. But RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav, indebted to the Congress for saving his wife's government in Bihar, has chosen to part ways with Mulayam Singh and back Sonia.

Congress officials blame the Opposition's disunity for not wanting a coalition. "The Tamil Maanila Congress is opposed to the AIADMK, the Janata Dal and RJD are at loggerheads. How can we form a government with all of them in? Hence, the only option is to go for a Congress government," said one.

But the party remains uncertain of collecting the 270 letters requested by the President. It is now hoping that even if it falls short by a few, the President will ask the Congress to form the government and prove its majority on the floor of the House.

"If we cannot show all the letters, it should not matter, because even the BJP-led alliance formed the government with a slight shortage and then proved its majority in the House after the Telugu Desam Party decided to back the government. Similarly, we too will be able to prove our majority," said another Congress official.

But he agreed that the President might not ask the Congress to form the government since the BJP has already claimed the support of 269 members and the President fears his actions will be seen as pro-Congress.

The BJP is also pointing to the example of how the United Front was allowed to form the government again after the H D Deve Gowda regime was voted out. But a Congress politician argued that "the argument is fallacious. If the BJP wants to do likewise, they must first drop A B Vajpayee".

Congress politicians believe that even if an election is called, they are in a position to improve upon their pathetic present tally of 141 Lok Sabha seats. They hope to benefit from their alliance with the RJD and win 10 to 15 seats in Bihar while sweeping Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, ruled by non-Congress governments, and doing well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi. And if it can strike an alliance with the AIADMK, who knows, the Congress might win a few seats in Tamil Nadu as well.

Thus, the party is looking at winning between 200 to 225 seats, still a far cry from the halfway mark. "Some Congress leaders boast of winning 300 seats, but I doubt that. Elections right now will help the Congress and the BJP, but not sufficiently to prevent another coalition from coming up," said a Congress parliamentarian. This is so because the Congress is still far from winning back Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and needs time to resurrect itself in these two states. But time is what the Congress may not have!

Tell us what you think of this report