Rabri Devi may just win a breather
George Iype in New Delhi
While the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government's 'Operation Bihar' has picked up momentum, the Union Cabinet will take a final decision on whether to sack the Rabri Devi government or not on Tuesday.
Though Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Home Minister L K Advani have declared the Rabri Devi government unfit to continue in Bihar, they are said to be meticulously examining the issue before recommending immediate imposition of President's rule in the state.
Bihar Governor Sunder Singh Bhandari, who has been camping in New Delhi for the past three days, will meet President K R Narayanan on Tuesday and submit a detailed report on the deteriorating law and order situation. The report will recommend that Chief Minister Rabri Devi does not deserve to continue in office.
Home ministry officials said the Union Cabinet will meet on Tuesday morning on whether or not to recommend the state government's dismissal -- the first in the BJP-led coalition's six-month tenure.
The President and prime minister have less than 24 hours to decide on the Rabri Devi government's survival. Narayanan returns from his foreign tour on Monday night, but Vajpayee leaves for an eight-day trip to New York and Paris on Tuesday evening.
Official sources said considering the political cost of recommending central intervention in Bihar at this juncture, it is unlikely that the Cabinet will recommend the dismissal of the Rabri Devi government.
Some senior BJP leaders on Monday asked the prime minister to refrain from sacking the Bihar government immediately as they fear it will show the party in a bad light on the eve of an assembly election in four states.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal has received overwhelming support for its anti-BJP offensive from major Opposition parties like the Congress, the Left Front and even the Janata Dal. "Dismissing the Bihar government when state elections are round the
corner will be disastrous for us," admitted a BJP official.
Even if the Cabinet recommends the ouster of the RJD government in Bihar, it is uncertain if the President will abide by the recommendation within 24 hours. President Narayanan has always consulted legal and constitutional experts before taking decisions like sacking a state government. Moreover, if Chief Minister Rabri Devi wins the confidence vote in the state assembly, the President may be unwilling to sack her soon after her victory.
Though Vajpayee has announced that Article 356 could be used even if a state government enjoyed a majority in the assembly, it is unlikely the President will hold this view.
"The President in all likelihood would not like to sack a government hours after it wins a vote of confidence in the state assembly," a senior home ministry official told Rediff On The NeT.
Therefore, he said, the Cabinet will put off the decision to recommend President's rule till the prime minister returns. "It is certain the Centre will dismiss the Rabri Devi government. But the timing is what everyone is waiting for," the official added.
BJP officials feel it is better to sack the Rabri Devi government after giving it a breather because the party expects that the political fires on the vexed Vananchal statehood issue will subside by then.
The prime minister and the BJP leadership are in a dilemma because they fear that axing the Bihar government will allow their belligerent ally, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, to renew its demand for the removal of the M Karunanidhi government in Tamil Nadu.
Moreover, many of the BJP's allies like the Akali Dal and supporters like the Telugu Desam Party and the National Conference are against the use of Article 356.
The BJP government has been contemplating the dismissal of the RJD government for months. Three weeks back, Advani met the President and informed him that the Rabri Devi government could be sacked because of the worsening law and order problems in Bihar.
The BJP government has recorded enough evidence to prove that some RJD leaders, in tandem with the state government machinery, unleashed large-scale violence during the Bihar bandh last month.
Home ministry officials say Advani's plans to sack the Rabri Devi government have gone awry after RJD president Laloo Prasad Yadav politicised the creation of the new Vananchal state and shifted the focus to a "united Bihar" on the issue.
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