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Supreme Court okaying Jayalalitha's trial leaves AIADMK shell-shocked

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham cadres and leaders alike are upset over the Supreme Court declining to stay the pending trial proceedings against party chief J Jayalalitha, relating to corruption cases under her chief ministership, on Wednesday.

The course of the apex court case has not surprised many legal pundits. As they point out, the high court had found a prima facie case against Jayalalitha, and some of her erstwhile ministerial colleagues. In fact, while disposing of her petition challenging the constitutional validity of the special courts, the high court had advised her to stand trial and prove her innocence.

This, in a way, might have been a guiding factor for the apex court, which does not go into the facts of the criminal cases against Jayalalitha at this stage. However, it is not clear what would happen to cases where the trial courts are able to conclude the trial and even pronounce the verdict before the six-week notice period ends. The question is considered technical at this stage.

More importantly for Jayalalitha and her party, the Supreme Court verdict means that they have lost a bargaining chip in political terms. With the assembly poll verdict expected to revive the Congress' chances of trying to replace the BJP at the Centre, AIADMK cadres had hoped for Jayalalitha to play a very crucial role in the coming days.

According to party leaders, the AIADMK could have either opted to stay put in the BJP-led coalition, talking about unity and stability. Or, it could have walked over to the Congress side, 'respecting the people's sentiments in the BJP-ruled states that are now awaiting the poll results'.

Instead, the apex court order of Wednesday means that Jayalalitha may have to lie low until a clearer picture emerges after six weeks. While a day-to-day trial could be an embarrassment for her and her party, it also means that even the Congress will think twice before wanting to be seen in the AIADMK company at present.

"There is no knowing what will happen if someone sets the ball rolling on toppling the A B Vajpayee government," says a Tamil Maanila Congress leader not known to be sympathetic towards the BJP. "It could lead to elections, not necessarily a viable alternative government. Will the Congress be ready to face the electorate when the media, the electronic media in particular, will be highlighting the day-to-day trial at Madras?"

A daily trial, some sources say, may even provide the 'excuse' that some AIADMK members of the Lok Sabha may be wanting, to part company with Jayalalitha. As may be recalled, at one stage in her running feud with the BJP ally, she charged the party with joining hands with the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu, to split her party. "That may, after all, come true, whether or not the BJP and the DMK have joined forces."

AIADMK sources are also sceptical about the viability of an alternative government, after unseating the BJP. "The Congress may get greater media mention on the 'Romesh Sharma episode' in the coming days, and the party may sulk before thinking of joining hands with the AIADMK, while its leaders are standing trial and facing cross-examination."

These sources also apprehend the possibility of the Congress encouraging the AIADMK to walk out of the BJP combine, and deserting all allies at the last minute, to go to the polls on its own, or with select allies. "After all, the Congress has a record of toppling party-supported governments at the Centre on four different occasions in the past."

Even if the Congress forms a government with other anti- BJP parties, or help them form one on the United Front line, it may still go to the polls at an early date, says this source. "After all, the current spell election seems to revolve around the anti-incumbency factor, with Vajpayee or Sonia Gandhi making no real difference. Which could mean, the factor could work against the BJP, and to the Congress's favour, if fresh Lok Sabha polls were to be held early."

It is this that individual parties, and party MPs including those from the AIADMK, seem to detest. As leaders in various political parties concede, the assembly election seem to prove that individuals don't count, even the Opposition doesn't count, only the performance of the government counts, with the voter. And no one, not certainly those supporting the Vajpayee government, are ready for that.

"And that is precisely what Vajpayee himself seemed to be telling his MPs, from whatever party they belonged, when he talked about a possible election to the Lok Sabha, at Lucknow on Tuesday," says one of them.

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