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Jaya moving for an alliance with Congress

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Their verbal attacks on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government apart, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary J Jayalalitha are said to be on a "fishing expedition" of sorts, if only to keep the other parties guessing.

In doing so, Jayalalitha is believed to be following Sonia's example of "trying to keep her flock together".

"There is nothing new in Jayalalitha's recent outbursts against the BJP leadership, or even against her erstwhile allies in Tamil Nadu," says an informed source. "Be it her recent stand on the Lok Sabha deputy speaker's election, or sidelining the Pattali Makkal Katchi-Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, or upbraiding the BJP on other issues, Jayalalitha has only given verbal form to what's already known."

In this context, the source refers to the similarity in the recent outpourings of Sonia and Jayalalitha. Both have been stressing that they would not be the cause for a mid-term election.

Sonia, while asserting that the Congress is in no hurry to topple the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, has also been saying the party will "not be found wanting" in "discharging its constitutional responsibility" if the government does collapse.

"This is Sonia Gandhi's way of keeping the Congress flock together," says the source. "Though at one point after the assembly election successes last fortnight, she was bold enough to speak out her mind in terms of a mid-term poll, better strategy seems to have prevailed since."

He pointed out that Sonia has also made it clear to the Congress in Parliament that the Vajpayee government will not be allowed caretaker status if an election becomes necessary. "She does not seem to have changed her perception that fresh elections are the only way out. She is only reassuring party MPs that they will have a Congress-supported caretaker government conducting the election."

Otherwise, he adds, she seems convinced that no stable alternative is possible to the Vajpayee government in the current Lok Sabha, and whatever alliance the party works out will be a short-term arrangement. "It's now for the MPs to reconcile themselves to the situation: to choose between risky elections, now or later, and letting the Vajpayee government continue for some more time and lose its credibility even further."

That is also the kind of message this source sees in Jayalalitha's recent outpourings against the BJP and her Tamil Nadu allies, and her cancellation of the existing alliance in the state. "She wants to keep the morale of her cadres and MPs high by hinting at a non-existent secret understanding with the Congress. They are being made to believe that she can pull Vajpayee down at a time of her choosing and join hands with the Congress to form an alternative government."

But Jayalalitha is also aware of the "impossibility of the existing situation," says the source. "Even if she pulls out, there is no real guarantee that the government will fall. Nor is the AIADMK sure any more that all 18 party MPs will stick by her. And what individual MPs in other parties might do in the face of imminent elections is anybody's guess."

Even on the deputy speaker's election, says the source, Jayalalitha has not taken a real initiative other than to try and wrest the non-BJP initiative within the ruling coalition. "The initiative seems to rest with the Telugu Desam Party after Speaker [Ganti Mohana Chandra] Balayogi expressed his keenness to have the election in this session," the source says.

Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee calling on Jayalalitha earlier this week to discuss a common strategy on the deputy speaker's election provided the latter the opportunity she was waiting for. "And she is making full use of it."

AIADMK sources, however, claim that Jayalalitha's move is a 'calibrated step' before openly joining hands with the Congress. According to them, the party may contest fresh elections in the company of the Congress, offering the latter 25 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state under the MGR formula. "But we want either the Tamil Maanila Congress along with the Congress, to make it a formidable alliance, or proof of Sonia Gandhi's pull over the state population, as with the late Indira Gandhi," they say.

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