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Jaya knocks on 10, Janpath's door by dissolving front

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

By announcing the formal dissolution of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham alliance and offering to join the nation-wide Opposition stir against the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government on December 11, party chief J Jayalalitha has sought to put the political ball in the Congress court.

If she has not gone further, it's only because of the 'confusing signals' from the Congress camp, and fear of dissidence within the AIADMK.

"It's now for the Congress to respond, before we take the next step," says an AIADMK source, referring to Jayalalitha's announcement at Madras airport on Monday evening. "Only then can we formally break off from the BJP and the Vajpayee government, to join hands with the Congress in any alternative formation."

According to the AIADMK leader, Jayalalitha's decision to part ways with her existing allies is an assertion of the AIADMK's electoral supremacy in the state. "She has hinted that you need the AIADMK to win elections in the state, and that she can pick and choose her allies as she desires."

Others, however, see it differently. Says a source in the Tamil Maanila Congress ally of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazagham: "Jayalalitha's announcement is an expression of her frustration, that the Congress is not coming to her rescue. There was no AIADMK alliance worth the name after the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham and the Pattali Makkal Katchi openly sided with the BJP three months back. Jayalalitha has possibly used the present occasion to tell the Congress that she is rid of 'pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam' elements, which is a sensitive issue particularly for Sonia Gandhi."

The TMC leader also refers to Jayalalitha's 'veiled invitation', for the two parties to form an alliance. "She needs Sonia Gandhi's national leadership and charisma, and the TMC's votes. Earlier, she thought she could woo the TMC through the Congress, now she wants the TMC to woo the Congress for her."

By announcing the formal dissolution of the AIADMK alliance, Jayalalitha seems to be telling the TMC, that there was 'enough room' now in her camp. But TMC founder G K Moopanar was lukewarm. An ambiguous 'thanks' was his only reaction to Jayalalitha's suggestion. But the party source refers to the persistent anti-Jaya mood in the TMC, "which the leadership knows well".

For his part, the PMK said on Tuesday that the AIADMK was still a 'friendly party'. But state BJP general secretary L Ganesan, while describing the alliance-dissolution as 'unfortunate', reminded the AIADMK that the party had won the Lok Sabha polls on his party's poll-plank, and hence should not withdraw support to the Vajpayee government.

AIADMK sources hope for a favourable response from the Congress before withdrawing from the ruling coalition at the Centre. But others say the party has gone 'too far already, for too little'. At the national-level, there is no guarantee of the Congress taking a favourable decision, particularly after the north Indian poll wins and the 'Pachmarhi declaration'. In the state, she has provided parties like the TMC and the PMK, a bargaining chip with the DMK.

Political observers say Jayalalitha could put the Congress in a real fix by unilaterally withdrawing AIADMK's support to the Vajpayee government -- and, thus handing down a 'fait accompli' to Sonia Gandhi. "That's the kind of situation that the United Front put the Congress in, when H D Deve Gowda, first, and I K Gujral, later, were elected prime ministers."

But the AIADMK leader is cautious. "Deve Gowda and Gujral became prime ministers when Sonia Gandhi was not the Congress president, and when the party too was in the heap. Now, it's a different Congress, a different Sonia Gandhi, more so after the assembly election."

According to him, "Given the talk of an evolving bi-polar polity at the national-level, the Congress could still decide to go it alone, counting on the Nehru-Gandhi charisma of Sonia Gandhi, and the party's traditionally successful 'stability card', where all others have failed."

And what he does not put in so many words is another thing: the party's fears, that not all 18 MPs will stick with the leadership, should it decide to part company with the BJP, that too when Jayalalitha and others would be busy facing criminal trials from the past. About the possibility of which, the BJP seems confident.

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