The India Meteorological Department in its forecast of South-West monsoon expects a normal rainfall at 96 per cent of its long period average for the current year.
The fiscal and monetary stimulus measures initiated during 2008-09 coupled with lower commodity prices could cushion the downturn in the growth momentum during 2009-10 by stabilising domestic economic activity to some extent.
However, any upturn in the growth momentum is unlikely in view of the projected contraction in global demand during 2009, particularly decline in trade.
While domestic financing conditions have improved, external financing conditions are expected to remain tight. Private investment demand is, therefore, expected to remain subdued.
On balance, with the assumption of normal monsoon, RBI pegged real GDP growth for 2009-10 at around 6.0 per cent.
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