Paddy production may fall in several key rice producing countries, but overall, the global rice output is expected to rise by about four per cent in 2004-05 to touch 406 million tonnes, the highest since 1999.

However, the poor crop outlook in the key countries is likely to impact rice inventories, which could decline by about six million tonnes from the opening level of 103 million tonnes.

Stock depletion was expected in India and China, for example. The global trade in rice was also expected to decline by about six per cent during the year due to subdued import demand.

The international price scenario for the next few months was uncertain as a result, a report released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation said.

Rice harvests are likely to decline in several major rice producing countries like India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines.

However, the production loss there is likely to be more than offset by larger crops in countries like the US, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Peru and Vietnam.

Paddy crops in some Asian countries would be adversely affected by poor monsoon rains in some and extensive floods in others.

Torrential rains between June and August caused heavy flooding of paddy fields in eastern India, southern China, Japan, Korea, Myanmar, Nepal, north-east Thailand and Vietnam.

Poor rains, on the other hand, hit paddy output in north-west India and parts of Malaysia and Nepal.

FAO said paddy (unmilled rice) production in India was expected to be around 127.5 million tonnes, about three million tonnes less than last year's harvest.

In contrast, production in China at 180.7 million tonnes would be about 12 per cent above the 2003-04 harvest and the highest since 2000-01.

Aggregate paddy output in Africa as a whole was anticipated to rise by about 3.5 per cent to nearly 19 million tonnes, the bulk of the growth coming from Egypt.

The global trade in rice in 2004-05 has been projected at 26.5 million tonnes, about six per cent below the previous two years' average annual trade of record 28.1 million tonnes.

Import demand was expected to remain marginally subdued thanks to good production.

Even in countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines facing a lower domestic harvest, import requirement could remain below previous year's levels.

International rice prices have tended to weaken since June 2004, reversing the uptrend witnessed between March 2003 and May 2004.

The FAO all-rice price index (1998-2000 as base) fell to 103 in August from 109 in May, 2004.