Despite the political backlash in the United States, outsourcing of information technology jobs will continue, and one out of every four high-technology jobs in developed nations today may be outsourced to emerging markets such as India by 2010, research firm Gartner has said.

"In terms of offshore centres, India remains the undisputed leader, with China and Russia emerging as strong contenders," Gartner said in its report released on Wednesday.

The prediction comes as the US-based group presented its analysis of outsourcing trends and other current IT issues at its annual Spring Symposium in Barcelona, Spain.

Gartner identifies the growth in offshore outsourcing to India and other developing countries as one of the most significant shifts in IT in the near term.

"Global sourcing is becoming a mainstream delivery model," said Ian Marriott, vice President, Gartner, at the symposium.

"The potential cost advantages are so persuasive that companies that don't consider it seriously risk doing their shareholders a disservice. Businesses will also be put at risk due to loss of competitive advantage and inability to focus on growth through innovation," he said.

Outsourcing has been a growing phenomenon in the United States and is catching on now in Europe as well.

The research shows that outsourcing as a whole is outstripping the IT services market in Europe, growing by 3.1 per cent in 2004 and predicted to rise to eight per cent by 2007, with the offshore element tipped to grow hugely.

Gartner predicts almost a third of leading European businesses will include an offshore element in their IT plans by 2005.

However, while global sourcing enables companies to deliver higher levels of services at lower cost, it also has its challenges and risks. Gartner says 2004 will be a year of disillusionment for global sourcing.

"We will continue to see an increasing backlash in connection with white-collar jobs moving offshore," Marriott warned.

"There is no doubt that the predicted shift in jobs associated with global sourcing is a harsh reality. However, there is nothing new about technology causing massive shifts in how and where people work. This is an unavoidable outcome of how the global marketplace operates today and western economies have been successful in navigating successive waves of economic transformation in the past."

Gartner predicts that the outsourcing segment will continue to outperform the western European IT services market overall, growing by 3.1 per cent in 2004; then rising steadily during the next three years to an annual increase of 8 per cent in 2007.