Central tax collection is likely to fall Rs 10,500 crore (Rs 105 billion) short of the revised estimates for 2002-03.

The latest data with the finance ministry shows the shortfall was Rs 3,317 crore (Rs 33.17 billion) in direct taxes and Rs 7,241 crore (Rs 72.41 billion) in indirect taxes.

The Centre is thus off its tax estimates, set just over a month ago, by nearly 5 per cent.

The Centre will most likely have to re-revise the fiscal deficit, projected at 5.9 per cent of the GDP for 2002-03. The onus is now on the expenditure department to trim the Rs 404,013 crore (Rs 4,040 billion) expenditure bill.

Excise collection has fallen Rs 5,689 crore (Rs 56.89 billion) short of the revised estimate at Rs 81,303.59 crore (Rs 813.04 billion).

Customs collections made up for poor performance earlier in the year by grossing Rs 44,919.92 crore (Rs 449.19 billion), Rs 580 crore (Rs 5.8 billion) less than the revised estimate. Service tax has fallen Rs 955 crore (Rs 9.55 billion) short of the projected Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 billion).

The realisation from Customs and excise was Rs 126,223.51 crore (Rs 1,262.23 billion) against the revised target of Rs 132,883 crore (Rs 1328.83 billion).

The growth in indirect tax collection over the previous fiscal was 12.36 per cent against a targeted 21.36 per cent.

Even the Budget for 2003-04 assumed that indirect tax collection would grow nearly 18 per cent in 2002-03.

In direct taxes, the corporate tax collection, at Rs 44,736 crore (Rs 447.36 billion), overshot the revised estimate of Rs 44,700 crore (Rs 447 billion). Income tax realisation is, however, only 91 per cent of the target at Rs 33,947 crore (Rs 339.47 billion).

For direct taxes, the revenue department had projected a 30 per cent growth in revenue in the beginning of the fiscal. Collection, in effect, rose by just a shade above 22 per cent.