Home > Business > Reuters > Report
Iraqis agree post-war role for oil majors, OPEC
April 07, 2003 12:30 IST
Iraqi exiles and senior US officials agreed on Saturday that international oil companies should take a leading post-Iraq war role in reviving Iraq's oil industry, delegates to a policy meeting said.
Talks in London between Iraqi experts under the auspices of the US State Department also recommended Baghdad stay in OPEC, though without limits on production, the Iraqis said.
Although early work will focus on the rehabilitation of existing facilities, talks with foreign oil majors on long-term projects could start quickly, said Iraqi delegates.
"It is in Iraqis' interest for an interim period of government to be as short as possible," said Dara Attar, an oil consultant representing some opposition groups.
Foreign investment deals, most likely production-sharing contracts, with a fully-fledged Iraqi government could come in between six months and two years time, he said.
"Yes, that is the idea because there is no doubt the oil companies are needed," said attendee Fadhil al-Chalabi, a former under-secretary at the Iraqi oil ministry.
The guidance will go to a US-run interim authority and a subsequent transitional government. It is likely to be published in about two weeks time.
The recommendations came from the fourth meeting of the oil and energy working group of the State Department's Future of Iraq project run by Thomas S. Warrick, Special Advisor to the US Assistant of State for near eastern affairs.
A statement afterwards called for Iraqi oil and natural gas to be exploited for the benefit of the Iraqi people.
It added: "The country should establish a conducive business environment to attract investment of oil and gas resources."
US officials at the meeting declined to elaborate.
"This is a highly-sensitive issue and we do not want any publicity," said one. "This is guidance by Iraqis for Iraqis facilitated by the US" said another.
Production sharing
But briefing papers to the meeting, obtained by Reuters, showed a clear consensus among expert opinion favouring production-sharing agreements to attract the oil majors.
"The PSA is certainly a favourite after short-term rehabilitation," said Attar. "Everybody keeps coming back to PSAs."
That is likely to thrill oil companies harbouring hopes of lucrative contracts to develop Iraqi reserves that rank second only in size worldwide to Saudi Arabia's.
Some had thought post-war nationalism would prevent early access to oilfields that, apart from those in Saudi Arabia and Mexico, are the only significant reserves not yet open to commercial capital.
Production-sharing is the type of deal favoured by the oil industry because it guarantees companies a healthy profit margin, even at low world oil prices. Alternative royalty schemes are weighted towards government revenues and can penalise investors at low prices.
Under PSAs Iraq would retain control over mineral ownership.
Short-term rehabilitation of southern Iraqi oilfields already is underway, with oil well fires being extinguished by US contractor Kellogg Brown and Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton.
Long-term contracts are expected to see US companies ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips compete with Anglo-Dutch Shell, Britain's BP, TotalFinaElf of France, Russia's LUKOIL and Chinese state companies.
Expert advice to the London meeting estimated $5 billion was needed for rehabilitation for output of 3.5 million barrels a day, nearly a million barrels daily more than existing capacity.
Legal preparations for long-term contracts with international oil firms should "be started concomitantly" with the repair work, one briefing said.
It estimated $30-$35 billion will be needed to add another about another 4-4.5 million barrels a day of production over a period of 8-9 years.
"Such a task will require the technological and managerial know-how of the international oil companies," it said. "Given Iraq's present lack of investment capital and technical talent, production-sharing contracts might be the most feasible relationship."
OPEC showdown?
The group advised that Iraq remain in OPEC, but without the cap on production that applies to other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
"There should be no problem with OPEC until we reach the 3.5 million we had before sanctions," said Attar. "After that we will have to raise the question of our special case for rebuilding."
A briefing paper said: "The prime objective of oil policy should be the maximisation of oil export revenues. It would be up to OPEC to keep Iraq within the organisation by allowing it to produce at will."
That is likely to raise fears in OPEC of a showdown on quotas, undermining the Saudi-led OPEC strategy of production restrictions aimed at supporting $25-a-barrel crude.
Saudi is the prime candidate in OPEC for cutting back production to accommodate a resurgent Iraq. Riyadh has expanded supply most since United Nations sanctions were imposed for Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait 12 years ago.
Iraqi state oil companies in the north and south and the State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) appear set to survive the early days of an interim US-led authority.
But advice to Saturday's meeting was that SOMO be reorganised quickly. Restructuring and a possible 30 per cent part-privatisation of the state companies could come afterwards, according to one briefing paper.
"We'll probably keep SOMO in place for the first few months," said one attendee.
Delegates said the group did not discuss names for those that might run Iraq's oil industry in the short term.
Phillip Carroll, the former head of Shell in the United States, is said to be a candidate to oversee oil policy with Iraqi economist Muhammad-Ali Zainy in the running as his number two.
© Copyright 2003 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
|