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NCAER projects 6.3-6.8 per cent GDP growth; 5 per cent deficit this fiscal

National Council for Applied Economic Research on Monday projected a 6.3-6.8 per cent growth in gross domestic product while pegging fiscal deficit at nearly five per cent during 2001-02.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 per cent provided agriculture output growth is higher at 3.5 per cent, industrial growth at 7.0 per cent and services sector grows by 7.9 per cent, NCAER said in its 'Review of the Economy'.

The growth could go upto 6.8 per cent if government is able to invest Rs 50 billion out of the targeted divestment proceeds of Rs 120 billion and the tax relief worth Rs 30 billion obtained by the corporate sector are fully invested, it said.

NCAER said fiscal deficit of the government is estimated to be nearly five per cent of GDP as against the budgeted 4.7 per cent, partly on account of loss in revenue collection resulting from lower tax rates.

Considering the exchange rate depreciation, rise in agricultural price and international price scenario, NCAER projected a higher inflation rate of 6.1 per cent during the current fiscal.

The economic think-tank said export growth was estimated to be lower at 14 per cent while growth in imports would be higher at 13 per cent resulting in a higher trade deficit.

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