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India rising world power with base for e-commerce: US

India, as a rising world power in computer software, has a significant and growing domestic base of technical expertise for e-commerce development, according to the US National Intelligence Council.

In an assessment of India and other countries in a paper, the Council said India and China are likely to lead the developing world in the assimilation and application of the Internet at the local level, with urban areas leading the countryside.

The paper titled 'E-Commerce at the grassroots: Implications of a wired citizenry in developing nations' said that major cities in western Russia would adopt the Internet and see its local effects at an early date, but most of Russia would lag behind significantly.

South Africa would make relatively rapid Internet progress, while the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa and the disrupted economies of Latin America would make progress, but at slower rates, it said.

The report has been put together by Booz-Allen & Hamilton in consultation with several US think tanks and experts.

The consultant on India, Carol Charles, assistant director, Global Information Infrastructure Commission and staff scholar at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, is a native of India and has focused much of her research on that country, the council said.

As poor as many of India's people are, the report says, the economy "actually is awash in cash and hard assets that could be put to work sponsoring small-scale startups that use Internet connectivity."

It said domestic and international benevolent associations and other organizations are active in many areas of India, dispensing "micro-loans".

"Many of these small loans will probably begin to go into small, community-oriented Internet kiosks. In addition to providing an income for the entrepreneur, a village Internet kiosk would be beneficial in much the same way as a new well, road or other local infrastructure project.

"Micro-lending operations themselves will be able to use local Internet connections to identify loan candidates."

The report warned that organised criminal activity may be facilitated by Internet communications. Countries with weak legal structures would be especially susceptible to online crime.

It said increased flows of news and information will make local populations better informed but governments are likely to use the Internet to their advantage, flooding local Internet channels with supportive news and information.

"Adroit disinformation to mislead the public and confuse opponents is also likely. Oppressive governments could also use Internet to their advantage to preserve the status quo."

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