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May 2, 2001
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CSFB goes overweight on India

NetScribes/Salil Panchal

Global stockbroking firm Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB), in its Asian strategy weekly issued on Wednesday, has gone overweight on India, along with South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan. The bank has provided an underweight recommendation for the larger and more high profile markets of China, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong.

The main rationale for an overweight recommendation is that these markets have been in an oversold position. Further, the risk appetite for the smaller markets will be higher following a constant bearish phase.

For the Asian region, CSFB sees a 47 per cent upside potential for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "In this region, we see the highest returns coming from Korea and Taiwan. We are yet to see how the MSCI changes will alter global asset allocation," the report said.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, whose weightages are seen as the barometer by fund managers across all developed and emerging markets, had altered their calculations for each country late last year. The calculations took into account the free float for a stock as a criterion to determine weightages.

A section of fund managers tracking the MSCI index say that the impact on India could be limited. It does not seem to have impacted the sentiment of foreign institutional investors operating through local and foreign funds. FIIs have already pumped in Rs 98.81 billion in the January-May 2001 period, when the markets have been volatile and bearish.

Within the positive factors, CSFB has recommended that investors pay greater attention to growth stocks and old-economy cyclical stocks at the expense of defensive stocks. It must be noted that 'defensive' stocks - mainly in the pharma sector are seen to have moved up appreciably even in a weak market. In the current context, they are at best seen as market performers, other fund managers have said.

A detailed country strategy report is expected in coming weeks.

Commenting on the overall Asia-Pacific strategy, CSFB says that valuations have improved and there has been a turn in earnings momentum over the last quarter. The biggest risk is the impact of the US economy slowdown and political tension that overhangs every South East Asian country.

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