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India's 2000-01 exports rise to $44.1 billion

India's merchandise exports leapt 19.83 per cent in 2000-01 to $44.1 billion, topping an 18 per cent target set by the government but analysts said a slowdown in the United States could drag exports down in the future.

Export growth in March slowed for the second month in a row on the back of the demand downturn in the United States and Japan, rising only 10.82 per cent to $4.27 billion, data released by the government showed on Tuesday.

"I expect next year's export growth figures to be lower due to the global demand situation," Charan Wadhwa, an economist with the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research said.

"An economic turnaround in the United States will hold the key" to a better performance, he said.

The trade deficit in 2000-01 narrowed to $5.73 billion from $12.9 billion in the year-ago period, the data showed. Imports in the year to March grew just 0.27 per cent to $49.84 billion from $49.7 billion during the same period a year ago.

Economists said the trade deficit had narrowed not only due to growing exports but also because of decreasing imports.

"It's a matter of concern as the deficit has been lower due to falling imports, signalling a demand slowdown in the Indian economy," Sanjib Pohit, an economist with the New Delhi-based National Council for Applied Economic Research, said.

Commerce and Industry Minister Murasoli Maran, who unveiled several measures to boost export growth in the country's 2001-02 trade policy in March, said the government could not afford to be complacent over the better-than-expected growth.

"There is no room for complacency. There should be concerted and sustained efforts to maintain if not accelerate this high growth rate," Maran said in a statement.

The commerce minister has been warning that the slowdown in the United States and Japan, India's two main markets, could slow the impressive growth rate.

But Maran said the government was determined to help exporters meet the government's target of grabbing a one per cent share of global trade by 2004/05, up from 0.64 per cent now.

Oil imports during the year grew 62.29 per cent to $15.65 billion from $9.64 billion in 1999/2000.

Non-oil imports for the year were estimated at $34.18 billion, 14.66 per cent lower than last year's $40.06 billion, the data showed.

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